NFL Wild Card Weekend rolls on as we turn our attention to the New York Giants battling the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC. Both teams have had questions asked about their level of quality, but one is guaranteed to make it to at least the divisional round. The Vikings just beat the Giants a few weeks ago courtesy of a long Greg Joseph field goal, and the question stands as to whether Minnesota can repeat that here. Our expert has their picks, predictions and best bets for this Giants vs Vikings matchup.
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NFL New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings expert predictions
The Giants got off to a hot 6-1 start before cooling down the stretch, but still did enough to reach the postseason. However, there were times that New York did not look great and that may not cut it against this Minnesota team. While the Vikings have had plenty of critics, no one can deny that they are 13-4 for a reason. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson have been one of the hottest duos in the league and they could prove why this Sunday.
New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Giants +3, Vikings -3
Total Points Over/Under: 48 points
Money Line Odds: Giants +135, Vikings -155
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New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Giants and Vikings.
Giants vs Vikings point spread pick: Vikings -3 (-105)
If you looked up “overachieving” in the sports dictionary, you would see a picture of these 2 teams. For just the 4th time ever, an NFL playoff game will feature teams that both are carrying a negative point differential. The Vikings have been a truly interesting case study, winning 13 times by a combined 86 points and losing 4 times by a combined 89 with margins of 17, 37, 11 and 24. Minnesota is also the master of doing just enough, going 11-0 in 1-score games this season.
The Giants have also gotten it done with smoke and mirrors, as Brian Daboll patched together a makeshift group of receivers and transformed Daniel Jones into a competent NFL quarterback. I think Daboll deserves to win Coach of the Year and based on the market movement last week he is getting strong consideration for that award.
The Vikings won 27-24 but failed to cover as -4.5 favorites in this exact same spot just a few weeks ago. The Giants out-gained Minnesota 445 to 353 in that matchup as Jones threw for 334 yards, his 2nd-highest total of the season. He also had 2 big-time throws, just the 2nd game all season in which he had more than 1. I think that performance is a ceiling from him, and I expect Ed Donatell to make some adjustments here. Jones is known for being much more efficient against the blitz and he backed that up going 8-for-11 with 105 yards against Vikings pressure looks in Week 16. However, he also threw an interception and got sacked once, so it’s important for Minnesota to time its blitzes properly.
If I’m Donatell I wouldn’t be overly aggressive bringing pressure; instead I would let Za’Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter and the rest of my base front to do their job. Then I would do my best to disguise coverages and make Jones diagnose. He has been much better doing that this season under the guidance of Daboll and OC Mike Kafka, who is getting considerable attention for the head-coaching vacancy in Carolina. But this is still going to be Jones’ first career playoff game on the road in what’s historically been a difficult place to play. Since 2002 first time playoff QBs against non-first time QBs are 16-34 SU and 14-35-1 ATS (28.5%), including 0-3 SU & ATS last year (Kyler Murray vs Rams, Mac Jones vs Bills, Jalen Hurts vs Bucs).
The Vikings were without 2 key pieces on the offensive line in the last matchup with C Garrett Bradbury and RT Blake Brandle both sidelined. The offensive line did not play well in that game, with Kirk Cousins suffering 4 sacks and 11 hits. Bradbury got a limited practice session on Wednesday and Brandle was designated for return from IR, so keep an eye on the status of both this week. Solidifying the offensive line carries extra importance when facing Wink Martindale’s pressure-happy defense. The Giants have the highest blitz rate in the NFL this season and are 6th in pass-rush win rate, led by the trio of Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux — who have combined for 16 sacks.
The narrative surrounding Kirk Cousins is notoriously low, and his numbers against the blitz are average at best with a slightly negative EPA/play and just a 65% adjusted accuracy rate. However, he also has the 2nd-most big-time throws when under pressure this season and a relatively low turnover-worthy play rate, so I would not be surprised if we get some explosive moments from him in this game. Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockensen went off in the last matchup with a combined 25 receptions, 242 yards and 3 touchdowns and the Giants have a bottom-10 DVOA against #1 receivers, so I expect Jefferson’s success to continue.
It’s hard to find legit 3-star value in the NFL postseason, but when I analyze the first matchup and try to gauge what’s happened since then, I’m not sure I can say the Giants are 1.5 points better than they were on Christmas Eve and the Vikings are definitely not 1.5 points worse. If anything they get an upgrade if Bradbury/Brandle return — especially when those points get me back onto the most key number.
Be sure to check out our full Giants vs Vikings predictions
Giants vs Vikings Over/Under totals pick: Under 48 (-110)
The last time these teams played Daniel Jones had his 2nd-best PFF passing grade of the season and the score was 13-10 entering the 4th quarter. But a 28-point final stanza capped by 10 points in the final minute sent it over the total of 48. Considering this is the 2nd matchup in a 4-week stretch, it’s very fair to think the defenses might have an upper hand after getting an up-close view of the opposing offenses. Both of these teams are average to slightly above average with their pace, so that’s definitely something working against this play. Both teams have also struggled defensively this year — most notably the Vikings, who finished 28th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed. Each side also finished outside the top 25 in DVOA.
I also see plenty of scenarios in which this game is a shootout, which is why it’s only a 1-star play. But considering the explosion needed a few weeks ago just to get over the previous total of 48, it’s hard not to lean under in the return engagement. This is also the first playoff start for Jones. Those historically don’t go well for debutants, so I can envision the Giants’ offense struggling to put up points. The best game-script for this under is the Vikings getting out to a multiple-score lead and pumping the brakes on their usually fast-paced offense while the Giants dink-and-dunk aerial attack bleeds the clock dry and fails to convert in the red zone. Surprisingly, the Giants have the 7th-highest TD rate in the red zone this season at 63% and the Vikings are outside the top 20 defensively in that category, so that is going to be a matchup that likely decides whether or not this game goes over the total.
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New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings expert predictions
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