We’ve got a divisional matchup on NFL Thanksgiving as the New York Giants meet the Dallas Cowboys in a red-hot NFC East clash. Both teams hold 7-3 records but endured very different results last weekend — the Giants fell to the Lions while the Cowboys annihilated the Vikings. Who will come out on top this time? Our NFL expert gives their picks, predictions and best bets for this big game.
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NFL Thanksgiving New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys expert predictions
The fact the Giants lost so badly and the Cowboys won so well may have caused an overreaction from sportsbooks, possibly creating a solid buy-low opportunity on New York. Remember, the Giants are still 7-3 this season and have proven why with resilient defense and a strong run game. While the Cowboys are looking better as each week passes, this is unlikely to be an easy game for them and the 10-point spread could be a little too big.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Giants +10, Cowboys -10
Total Points Over/Under: 45.5 points
Money Line Odds: Giants +330, Cowboys -410
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New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the Thanksgiving clash between the Giants and Cowboys.
Giants vs Cowboys point spread pick: Giants +10 (-115)
It seems terrifying on paper, but this is the situation where you want to back the New York Giants. Situationally, the Cowboys are fresh off a dominant performance in a win over the Vikings, while the Giants were embarrassed on their home field against the Lions. Backing a team to bounce back after not covering in the previous week, while simultaneously fading a team that covered by a massive margin is a consistent angle that has been profitable for years now in the NFL. Take no exception this week in this NFC East matchup.
This is a team that isn’t all that strong as a favorite, but thrives in the underdog role. It all starts with their quarterback. Daniel Jones is 14-5 against the spread as a road underdog in his career, as he’s consistently played better away from MetLife Stadium throughout his tenure in New York. New York’s running game has been the engine behind its offense, which will come into play against a Cowboys defense that is ranked 26th in opponent yards per carry and 24th in rush yards allowed this season. Dallas can get after the quarterback with its terrific pass rush, but this Giants passing game emphasizes getting the ball out of Jones’ hands quickly anyway, so that should neutralize some of the effectiveness of Micah Parsons and company. In a divisional matchup with a relatively low total, it’s hard not to take the points with New York.
Be sure to check out our full Giants vs Cowboys predictions
Giants vs Cowboys Over/Under totals pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
Taking the under in Giants games has been a consistently profitable trend in recent years, and I don’t see that stopping on Thursday. The under is hitting at a 74% clip in games involving the Giants since the start of the 2020 season, making New York the most profitable team to the under in the NFL over the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys should feature plenty of Tony Pollard out of the backfield in this game, especially since the Giants run defense is near the bottom of the league in yards per carry allowed. On the flip side, given that the Giants best chance of staying competitive is keeping the ball on the ground and chewing up clock, the clear lean is to the under in this contest.
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