Andrew Ortenberg
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First off and most importantly, Happy New Year to you and yours. The 2023 NFL regular season is coming to a close, but we’ve still got two more full weeks to look forward to before the playoffs start. And one of the most highly anticipated Week 17 showdowns is this NFC South clash between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the division on the line.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this rivalry showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 17 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Saints vs Buccaneers SGP.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
Over 42.5 (-110)
Chris Godwin 80+ receiving yards (+240)
Chris Godwin 6+ catches (+134)
Parlay odds: +1609
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 16/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Buccaneers on the spread. This line seems to indicate that these two teams would be around even on a neutral field, and I just don’t see that at all. I’m not getting overly excited about the Bucs despite their recent success, and I agree they could be due for a bit of regression soon, but the Saints have been downright terrible. New Orleans’ 7-8 record makes them look somewhat respectable, but it’s misleading and doesn’t tell the full story.
For example, this is a list of all the teams the Saints have beat this season. The Titans, Panthers (twice), Patriots, Colts, Bears and Giants. Mostly just the worst teams in the league. They picked up back to back wins over New York and Carolina recently, but right before that had lost three straight. And when they had to snap back to reality and play a real team again last week, they got stomped by the Rams.
New Orleans’ offense is anemic, and their defense has regressed significantly. When these teams played each other earlier this year, Tampa dominated 26-9. And that game was played at the Saints. The Bucs are rolling right now and have won four straight. Last week they dominated Trevor Lawrence and the Jags 30-12, and the week before that Baker Mayfield had a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field. Which brings us to the next leg of our same game parlay…
The Dolphins probably have the highest offensive ceiling of any team in the league and seven of their past nine wins have come by at least 14 points, so they certainly make a lot of sense as a team to target on an alt spread. When they win, they tend to air it out and win big. Which brings us to the next leg of our same game parlay…
Over 42.5 (-110)
For our next leg we’ve got the over. Tampa’s offense is rolling right now, but nobody seems to want to admit it. They’ve scored 29+ points in three straight games now, but oddsmakers keep pricing their totals like they’re the 2022 Bucs. Todd Bowles’ defense isn’t nearly as good as it used to be, but new OC Dave Canales had completely revitalized Mayfield’s career. And it doesn’t hurt that he has Chris Godwin and Mike Evans at his disposal.
Mayfield has thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions over his past three games, and the Saints’ once vaunted defensive front has generated the fourth-fewest sacks in the league this season. Derek Carr has been a bit better recently and even though the Saints’ offense still looks ugly at times, they’ve produced at least 22 points in four straight games now.
The Bucs are giving up the seventh-most yards per pass attempt this season, and their defense is nothing better than middling. This one has sneaky shootout potential.
Chris Godwin 80+ receiving yards (+240)
Chris Godwin 6+ catches (+134)
To wrap this same game parlay up we’ve got a couple of Godwin props. I threw in the 6+ catches because we got an extra odds boost from +837 to +1061, and I don’t think there’s really any scenario where Godwin gets to 80 yards but doesn’t have six catches. In fact, each of the last 12 times in his career that he’s had 80+ receiving yards, he’s also had 6+ catches.
The veteran wideout has been seeing heavy volume recently, racking up double digit targets in each of his past three contests. Just two weeks ago he had 10/155 against the Packers, and now he’s getting to face a Saints secondary that is declining and that he has a history of success against. When these teams played each other back in Week 4, Godwin had 8 catches for 114 yards.
And in his one game against them last year he had eight catches and 13 targets. Last week against the Rams the Saints gave up 328 yards through the air as Puka Nacua shredded them for 164 yards.
