Matt Wiesenfeld
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Best Bet – New Orleans to win the NFC +400
Worst Bet – New Orleans to make the playoffs -350 (Yes)
The New Orleans Saints probably should have played in the Super Bowl last season. We all saw that non pass interference call and there was so much grief taken by the league that they actually changed up the replay rules. They were really good last season and there is no reason to think that they cannot be again. Not everyone is back, but more than enough return to keep the offense humming and maybe the defense could be even better. It is always hard to handicap motivation but there is every reason to think this group is as hungry as any coming into the 2019 season.
The biggest key for New Orleans is the amazing QB Drew Brees. He is definitely at an age where some physical decline could take place but good luck finding it in his game. Not only is he putting up monster numbers but he seems to be getting more efficient with age. He is not dinking and dunking either, he throws the ball down the field and tries to make plays instead of avoiding mistakes. Also back, in what will once again be an expanded role, is RB Alvin Kamara. There are few players who are a threat to score on every touch, but he is one of them. Carrying the ball or catching it he scares the defense as does WR Michael Thomas, maybe the best receiver in the league. I am not sure if any other team can match that triumvirate. With good health, it would be a surprise if the offense was not Top Ten.
When their opponents have the ball the Saints will be looking for a little more balance. They were second against the rush last season but 29th against the pass. Now, some of that could be skewed by the fact that most of their opponents were playing catchup but a better ratio would be advantageous. One good thing about that New Orleans pass defense though is that they were able to get to the quarterback. They were fifth in the NFL in sacks. DE Cam Jordan had 12 of them and is one of the most complete defensive linemen in the league.
DT Sheldon Rankins was second on the team with 8 sacks and they are looking to work him back into the lineup when he is healthy. They have added some beef inside to compensate until he is ready to get back on the field and they are excited about DE Marcus Davenport, who is going to get more snaps after a solid rookie season thanks to the departure of Alex Okafor. That makes the Saints defense that much faster and explosive. The defense should be as good as it was a year ago and with the offense a near given this team rides its defense up and down the NFL power rankings.
New Orleans Saints Total Wins 10.5
The Saints have a tough schedule this season. Their first four opponents all won at least 10 games a year ago and with trips to the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks in weeks 2 and 3 they could easily be 1-2. I do expect them to be favored in their last 9 games though so as long as the start is not a disaster they should go over this season with relative ease. They won 13 games a year ago. That might be a little high for this season but even 12-4 will not have us sweating this one too much. Recommendation: Over
Odds to make the playoffs -350 Yes / +275 No
Predicting a 12-4 season might be the same as predicting a playoff appearance. New Orleans might have the easiest path to a division title in the NFC too as I don’t see another South team being much better than 8-8. I can see some scenarios where maybe the record is not as good as I think but New Orleans completely missing the playoffs seems very unlikely. It is just hard to like the price here. Recommendation: Pass, there are better numbers below.
Odds to win the NFC South -190
Linked to the above there is obviously a much better payoff to take the Saints to win the division. Here is a simple stat – last year they scored the most points and gave up the least points in the division. Though the other teams may improve some I think those numbers will hold. Right now I predict they will not lose more than one division game. If that. Recommendation: Paying -190 is a lot for a whole season but I like the Saints a lot to repeat as division champs.
Odds to win NFC Conference +400
I like this one a lot as well. We all saw that they probably should have won this one last year. That does not make this anything close to a sure thing but at 4/1 to take the conference there is a pretty good payoff. They likely take on the Rams or the Chicago Bears in the NFC title game and I am still not sure about those quarterback situations in terms of winning them a really big game when they need it. Recommendation: Jump on this one. I like having a couple of horses in this kind of race so maybe pair them with a sleeper team too. The odds are solid.
Odds to win Super Bowl 54 +850
I am looking at doubling down on this one. New England is the odds on favorite to win the AFC and would probably be the favorite if these teams met in the Super Bowl, but I do not see them as the better of the two teams. Brees vs. Tom Brady would be awesome but there is no reason to think the surrounding situation is better in New England. You are getting more than double the conference odds too which is nice. Recommendation: Any Super Bowl predictions this far out is a game, but this is a good one.
