Ricky Dimon
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Chiefs or Patriots? Patriots or Chiefs? The talking pundits have already been debating this for several days now and the same discussion will continue into Sunday afternoon. But let’s talk about what’s really important—at least from a betting perspective. Prop bets! Here are five plays that may be worth taking for the upcoming AFC Championship.
Chiefs over 29.5 points (-115)
Kansas City’s offense has been a well-oiled machine the entire season and it is in especially fine form right now. The Chiefs have outscored their last two opponents 66-16, pinning 35 points on Oakland to close out the regular season and 31 on Indianapolis in divisional-round win last weekend. They could have poured in even more, of course, but both games were laughers. K.C. led the NFL by a country mile in points during the regular season, averaging 35.3 per contest. New England, meanwhile, finished 21st in total defense at 359.1 yards per contest. Mahomes, the likely NFL MVP, passed for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns in the 16-game slate.
Julian Edelman to score a touchdown (+100)
Edelman was targeted 13 times during New England’s divisional-round romp over the Chargers. He turned those into nine receptions for 151 yards. The 32-year-old failed the find the endzone, but that was in part due to the fact that running back Sony Michel scored three times. Against Kansas City, however, the Patriots are unlikely to lead from start to finish as they did against Los Angeles. Tom Brady, who targeted right end Rob Gronkowski only once this past Sunday, will be airing it more during this upcoming visit to Arrowhead Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes to rush for a touchdown (+350)
Even though Mahomes can do wonders with his feet, he is by no means a touchdown-scoring machine on the ground. Of course, that’s why you’re getting extremely enticing +350 odds on this bet. The former Texas Tech standout, who rushed for 272 yards and two TDs during the regular season, used his feet once to find pay-dirt against the Colts. It’s going to be absolutely freezing in Kansas City this weekend, which will be conducive to keeping the ball on the ground as opposed to slinging it around with reckless abandon. But there won’t be any precipitation like there was during Chiefs-Colts, so the offenses will find plenty of footing.
Both teams to make a field goal from at least 37 yards (+120)
Getting +120 on this prop play is solid value. Frigid conditions can hinder longer field goals, but 37 yards or a little bit more should not be a problem–not for the likes of Kansas City’s Harrison Butker and longtime New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski. Butker has gone four games without missing a kick of any kind, going 4-for-4 on field goals and 15-for-15 on PATs during this stretch. Gostkowski went 2-for-2 on field goals against the Chargers and he has also not missed a kick since Dec. 9, a span of four games (5-for-5 on field goals, 14-for-14 on PATs during this stretch).
No defensive or special teams touchdowns (-225)
And now for one safe play…well, safer than the others. New England and Kansas City tied for seventh in the NFL in fewest turnovers (18) during the regular season. As everyone would expect, these are not exactly two offenses–and really two franchises–that play hot potato with the football. They certainly aren’t going to start doing so in the AFC Championship. No wind, rain, or snow will contribute to this being a fundamentally-sound, high-quality contest.
