The New England Patriots are hoping their season hasn’t been completely derailed by the ankle injury sustained by quarterback Mac Jones last week as they head to Green Bay on Sunday in Week 4 of the NFL season. Veteran Brian Hoyer is set to get the start for the Patriots (1-2) in Wisconsin, so the 2-1 Packers, led by Aaron Rodgers are understandably big favorites for a home win. Our NFL experts have picks and predictions for Sunday’s matchup, so let’s take a closer look at the game.
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NFL Week 4 New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers prediction
The Patriots are almost double-digit underdogs for this game as they look set to turn to veteran backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, who would be supported by rookie Bailey Zappe. New England has 1 win on the board this season, against the Steelers in Week 2, in between losses to AFC contenders the Dolphins and Ravens. Their tough early schedule continues with a trip to Lambeau Field to face the Packers.
Green Bay stands at 2-1 after suffering an early shock with a comprehensive 23-7 Week 1 loss to NFC North rivals the Minnesota Vikings. Things are looking better for Matt LaFleur’s team now after wins against the Bears and Buccaneers in the last two weeks and they are looking to stay undefeated at home.
New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Patriots +9.5; Packers -9
Total points over/under: 39.5-40.5 points
Money line odds: Patriots +375; Packers -435
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Be sure to also check out all of our other NFL Week 4 Predictions articles below.
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New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers expert picks
We’ve got some great NFL picks for this week’s game between the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers, including spread and total (over/under) selections.
Against the spread pick: Patriots +9.5 (-110) over Packers
This game was originally set to have a line of Green Bay -5, but the likely absence of Patriots quarterback Mac Jones with a high ankle sprain saw the line jumping as high as 10.5 at some books. Even though it has dropped below 10 again, there is a reasonable hope of the Patriots being able to at least cover as large underdogs.
The key to this matchup should be the Patriots ground game going up against the Packers run defense. While Green Bay is allowing just 113.3 rushing yards per game and has given up just 1 rushing touchdown, they have not been playing against strong offenses. With a 1-2 punch at running back of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, we should expect a slow, methodical approach by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick as he looks to exploit the defensive weakness of the Packers and take the pressure off his quarterback.
Green Bay will likely counter in similar fashion as the Patriots rank lowly against the run themselves. RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should see plenty of work as LaFleur likes to use the run to set up the pass. Rodgers may not have such strong receiving weapons as in previous years after the departure of Davante Adams, but the corners for New England are far from what they once were too. The Packers should win the game, but given the likely slow pace, it seems unlikely that it will be enough of an advantage for them to secure a wide-margin victory.
Be sure to check out our full Patriots vs Packers predictions
Over/Under totals pick: Under 40.5 points (-115)
The under has hit in all 3 of the Packers’ games this season and in 2 of the 3 games for the Patriots, and this could be another l0w-scoring contest. Both teams like to run the ball, which should keep the clock moving and the score low, but both run defenses are vulnerable. You also have the Rodgers factor and while his weapons aren’t what they once were, he is still capable of putting points up on the board.
New England’s likely QB change to veteran Brian Hoyer, who is no longer known as a gunslinger, should help to suppress the total. He has had all week to prepare with Jones out of action, but again, with the Packers defensive weakness being against the run, don’t expect Belichick to put the ball in Hoyer’s hands, especially with a very limited group of pass-catchers.
Slow and methodical seem to be on the menu for this game with the possibility of Rodgers taking a few extra shots downfield. The Packers rank slowest in the NFL for pace of play and the Patriots aren’t far behind in 23rd.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 4 action.
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