Ricky Dimon
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Best Bet – To Win the AFC Championship (+400)
Worst Bet – To Make the Playoffs (-800)
The New England Patriots winning the Super Bowl may not be the third certainty of life behind death and taxes, but it’s close. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and company have lifted the Lombardi Trophy six times dating back to the start of their dynasty in 2001. When will the dynasty end? Future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski has retired, but that doesn’t mean the end is near. With Brady and Belichick back, does it really matter who else is around? Well, to some extent yes, but the supporting cast is still strong even without Gronkowski. It includes wide receiver Julian Edelman, running back Sony Michel, and safeties Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty just to name a few. Even offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has returned yet again, having continually spurned head-coaching offers following his one failed gig in Denver.
Keeping up with and even surpassing fellow “old” champions Roger Federer (37) on the tennis court and Tiger Woods (42) on the golf course, Brady (41) is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and without question still one of the best in the business. He won his third NFL MVP Award as recently as 2017. Although Brady was not in the MVP discussion last season, he still tossed 29 touchdown passes compared to only 11 interceptions. Remaining incredibly durable in the seemingly latter stages of his career, the University of Michigan product has played in all 16 games in nine of the last 10 seasons. The only exception was a 12-game effort in 2016, and even that was due to suspension as opposed to injury.
Thanks in part to Brady, Gronkowski, Edelman, and the emergence of Michel, the Patriots finished fifth in the NFL in total offense (fifth in rushing, eighth in passing) last year. Their defense was mediocre at best (21st overall, 11th against the run, 22nd against the pass) but rose to the occasion when it mattered most by holding the Rams to just three points in Super Bowl LIII.
Patriots Win Total: O/U 11
This year’s number of 11 was exactly where New England found itself last season. It is an unspectacular total for a Super Bowl champion, to be sure, but the Patriots obviously should have been 12-4 rather than 11-5 (everyone, of course, remembers the last-play loss on the Miami Miracle). They started off slow as well, losing two of their first three games at the hands of Jacksonville and Detroit. But a midseason hot streak that featured wins over Indianapolis, Kansas City, Chicago, and Green Bay (six in total) showcased the real Patriots. The Pats on display then were the Pats on display in the playoffs. In the words of former Cardinals head coach Dennis Green, they were who we thought they were.
And the AFC East will likely let them off the hook once again. Having the benefit of playing Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets twice every season is (except when miracles occur) an incredible luxury. Barring some unforeseen disaster, at worst this will be a push. As such, roll with the over.
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes -800, No +500
Brady getting hurt—and getting hurt early—is the only scenario in which anyone could see the Patriots missing the playoffs. The GOAT getting hurt has not happened since 2008 and the Pats missing the playoffs has not happened since…you guessed it…2008. Even without Gronkowski, this offense is too good to take a considerable step back. Edelman has at least one more productive season left at 33 years old and Michel will only improve in his second NFL season.
That being said, no part of this bet is enticing. At -800, betting New England to make the playoffs is not good enough value. Meanwhile, +500 is nowhere near enough of a payday to go out on a limb and pick the Patriots to miss out. Avoid this like the plague, but clearly the Pats are going to make the playoffs so go in that direction if you must.
Odds to Win the AFC East: -400
As referenced earlier, this division stinks. Everyone other than New England stinks, that is. Okay, the AFC East may not be the worst of the worst in the entire league; the bottom line, though, is that no one can compete with the Pats. The Jets are still at least a year away and both Buffalo and Miami have been stuck in mediocrity for the last decade. It’s not a terrible bet but it’s also not the best, because—let’s be honest—if the Patriots make the playoffs, they’re probably going the Super Bowl. So why not bet bigger?
Odds to Win the AFC Championship: +400
A much better bet is on the AFC Championship. This esteemed franchise has played in nine Super Bowls under Belichick, including five without Gronkowski. It can get there again, especially if the road to it goes through Foxborough. The road often goes through Foxborough, too; it didn’t last season…and it didn’t matter. New England went to Kansas City and took down the top-seeded Chiefs in the AFC Championship. You just can’t bet against Brady in the postseason. At +400, there is intriguing value on the Patriots to play in yet another Super Bowl.
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +600
Most teams generally have twice the odds of winning a title as they do of winning their conference. For example, they are often +400 to win a conference and +800 to win a title, +500 to win a conference and +1000 to win a title, etc. That isn’t the case for the Patriots simply because they are so good in the Super Bowl. Once they get there, they win it (unless an NFC East opponent is roaming the other sideline). This is not an awful bet because New England has a great chance of repeating, but sticking with AFC glory is a safer, smarter play.
