Andrew Wilsher
Ladies and gentlemen, let the madness begin! March Madness has arrived, and it’s arguably the best week in all of sports when everyone pieces together a bracket and we see upsets take place in the world of college basketball. We’ve seen tons of high-profile upsets in recent years, and with 4 heavy favorites in Duke, Florida, Auburn and Houston, I wouldn’t count out seeing another as one of those makes an early exit. UConn cut down the nets for the second straight year in 2024 but have huge odds to three-peat this time around. Will one of the big hitters justify their low odds, or could we see a longshot take the crown? Let’s dive into the March Madness winner best bets from our best college basketball experts!
Get ready for the madness with our expert’s NCAA Tournament winner predictions, including a +6000 longshot! Plus, don’t miss our comprehensive March Madness 68-team bracket guide, featuring analysis of EVERY team in the tournament!
Sam Avellone: Florida Gators (+380)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
In full disclosure, I bet the Gators back in December at +4000 odds. However, as I examine this bracket, I cannot help but think Florida’s path is not only manageable but favorable for a deep postseason run. The SEC champions are likely to be a popular pick given how well they finished the season, but it’s warranted. The Gators are 1st nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 10th on the defensive side. Moreover, they are 8th in offensive rebounding rate, as they have elite size in the front court with Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten.
That frontcourt size pairs well with a highly experienced starting backcourt that consists of 3 seniors – all of whom have NCAA Tournament experience. In fact, the Gators even have a guard with Final Four experience, as Alijah Martin was part of Florida Atlantic’s run to the NCAA Tournament semifinals just 2 seasons ago. Florida’s weakness is probably its team free-throw percentage, but when you look deeper into the numbers, you will see that Martin, Walter Clayton, Will Richard and Thomas Haugh all shoot at least 73% from the charity stripe. Of all the #1 seeds, I feel Florida is the most balanced and most difficult to match up with, so if you are looking to place a future bet on one of the top seeds, I recommend the Florida Gators – who most notably have wins over Tennessee (twice), Auburn, Alabama (twice) and Missouri.
Don’t miss our March Madness picks for EVERY NCAA Tournament game!
Caleb Wilfinger: Florida Gators (+380)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I understand that this is not the greatest number on the board, and much like my colleague Sam, I also have a ticket on Florida from much earlier in the season. With that said, I’m not eager to step in front of a Gators team that is playing better than any other team in the country, and has been for a while now.
Winners of 6 straight and 12 of their last 13 games, Florida looks like the most complete team in the nation on both sides of the ball. Florida can beat you in a number of different ways, but it all starts in the backcourt with the elite guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin. But what really sets the Gators apart is their rotation of big men that really form a massive edge for Todd Golden’s team with their ability to pass, cut and rebound in traffic.
Florida wasn’t given many favors with its draw, as the West Region features a number of teams I was looking to back in this tournament (St. John’s, Texas Tech, Maryland, etc.). However, this is a team that finished with a 5-1 record against the trio of Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama this season, so the Gators won’t be intimated against the best competition from conferences that are noticeably weaker than the SEC. Ultimately, market indications suggest that this price can only get shorter, so I’d still grab it at the current number.
Ricky Dimon: Alabama Crimson Tide (+2200)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The #1 seeds are the overwhelming favorites, so I don’t see any value on them in a sport — and more specifically a tournament — in which there are a lot more than 4 legitimate contenders. If anything, I might consider Auburn at +550 (FanDuel) or Houston at +700. Still, neither of those teams will stop me from diving into the #2 seed pool. That is where Alabama has outstanding value at +2200 (DraftKings). You probably won’t be able to get the Crimson Tide that high for long, as Grant Nelson’s injury status is likely to improve. The senior forward is questionable for round one due to a knee injury suffered during the SEC Tournament, but head coach Nate Oats has said that any long-term damage was avoided.
If Nelson is healthy, there is a lot to like about Alabama. Unlike in football, defense rarely wins championships in college basketball. You have to score — and nobody does it better than the Crimson Tide. They are #1 nationally in scoring (91.1 ppg) with room to spare, as no other program is averaging more than 86.6 ppg. ‘Bama also has great guard play, which is essential for NCAA Tournament success. Mark Sears (18.7 ppg, 4.9 apg) is among the best point guards in the land. The Tide also have a ton of experience; their top 3 scorers are all seniors and they made a run to the Final Four last season before falling to eventual champion UConn. There is no reason why Oats’ squad can’t win it all this time around.
Find out our expert likes for a deep run in our Final Four predictions and Sweet 16 best bets
Chad Hartsock: Duke Blue Devils (+320)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Anyone who knows me knows how much it pains me to write this, but I think Duke has the best team in the nation and probably the cleanest path to the title. A few weeks ago, I thought Duke might be hiding behind a soft ACC schedule. Then Cooper Flagg got hurt, and there was no reason to keep winning when a week off would be helpful, yet they kept winning comfortably anyway. This is a roster with multiple NBA players and they do everything well. They are top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils rebound well. They shoot the three-ball well. They defend the three-ball well. Other teams have flaws that can be exploited, but if you are going to beat Duke, it will take a perfect game and some lucky bounces. Or another rolled ankle.
All eyes on our March Madness Cinderella picks and NCAA Tournament longshots for who could make a surprise run this year
Jason Fragomeni: Florida Gators (+380)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s the best time of the year, and as we fill out our NCAA brackets, one of the biggest questions on our minds is: who will win it all? Duke is the favorite to cut down the nets this year, and rightfully so given the way Cooper Flagg has been playing this season. However, there’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding Flagg and his ankle injury, including whether he’ll be able to play this opening weekend. As we look over how every team has performed in their conference tournament, there is one team that stands out to me, and that’s the Florida Gators.
The Gators are on fire heading into this year’s NCAA Tournament, winning 12 of their last 13 games, and their last 6 wins are all Quad 1 games. This Florida team has elite guards and they have bigs that are able to crash the boards and out-rebound their opponents. The Gators will have to navigate through the 2-time champs, UConn Huskies, but that won’t phase them one bit. I expect them to go up against a tough St. John’s team in the Elite Eight, but with their size and talent, they should be able to march on to the Final 4.
Florida is extremely dangerous right now and I wouldn’t want them in my region. The Gators were 3rd in the NCAA this season in scoring, averaging 85.4 ppg, and was 3rd in rebounds with 42.03 rebounds per game. Florida has everything it needs to win it all, and based on their recent performance, I don’t think any team in this tournament will be able to stand in their way.
