The Round of 64 is just hours away and my excitement level is through the roof. This year’s edition of March Madness is shaping up to be a great one as the field has never been more balanced. Several teams have what it takes to win it all, but before teams can get to the Final Four or even the Championship game, they have to get through the Round of 64. There are 16 games on Thursday and I’ve picked my 2 underdog best bets of the day, so let’s see if the madness of March can bring some upsets early on.
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College of Charleston +5 (-110) over San Diego State
College of Charleston was one of the few teams in the country that ended their season with 30 or more wins. They ran through the CAA and finished with a 31-3 record, and their only losses came from Hofstra, Drexel and North Carolina. Charleston lacks the experience of playing quality opponents since the CAA is a very weak basketball conference. However, the Cougars have the type of team that could beat any team on any night. They don’t have one star in their lineup, as their entire starting 5 can score at will, and that quality has been the staple of Charleston’s season. The Cougars rely on a 9-man rotation which allows them to push the pace consistently without having tired legs on the floor. It’s rare for Charleston to have someone play 30 or more minutes, and while some say that limits the ability of a player to get in a rhythm, the Cougars have 31 wins to show the doubters.
I am slightly worried about San Diego State’s defense, which was one of the better units in the nation. But giving the Cougars 5 points is a lot for a team that was exceptional in the CAA tournament. The Aztecs were 15-16-1 ATS this season, while the Cougars are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. I’ll take the points with a fast-paced Charleston team.
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Penn State +3 (-110) over Texas A&M
Penn State ended its season in the perfect fashion. The Nittany Lions were 5-1 in their last 6 games, which included wins over Northwestern (twice), Maryland, Illinois and Indiana while suffering just a 2-point loss to Purdue. All 5 of those teams are in March Madness with a better seeding than Penn State, which proves to me that the Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. For the Aggies, it was a bad end to their season. They won the first 2 games of the SEC tournament before getting thrashed by Alabama. Their 19-point loss to the Crimson Tide was a damper on their excellent 25-9 season. Oddsmakers have listed Texas A&M as the favorite by a few points, but it’s hard to overlook Penn State with the way they are playing.
Penn State is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 11-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in March, so when the time comes to win (or cover in this case), the Nittany Lions come through. If Penn State can continue to knock down their 3-pointers, they should have a shot at winning this game and moving to the Round of 32. But to be safe, I’ll grab the points with Penn State.
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