Ricky Dimon
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The main goal for any team is to be the last one standing – to become national champions and cut down the nets in Houston. However, the NCAA Tournament is defined by thrilling finishes, Cinderella stories and upsets. You can be almost sure that every year at least one team will deliver a program-defining win, no matter if that team ultimately falls short of the national title, Final Four, or even the Elite Eight. There will always be surprises; the key to better brackets and better betting is to identify the right ones.
Here are my best underdog picks for Day 2, either on the money line or against the spread.
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VCU ML over Saint Mary’s (+160)
VCU is a program that is a proven force in college basketball, including in March. This particular version of the Rams has been outstanding all season and I expect it to continue when it matters most in the NCAA Tournament. The Rams won the Atlantic 10 regular-season title and then rolled through the conference tournament. Now they face a Saint Mary’s squad that also doesn’t come from Power 5 competition. The Gaels have lost games to Washington, Colorado State and Loyola Marymount, so it’s not like they are overly reliable as favorites. They don’t have much momentum, either, after getting humiliated 77-61 by Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament final. I’m going with VCU and not even bothering with the 4 points. An outright upset is in the cards.
Kent State +4.5 over Indiana (-110)
This could be a problematic spot for #4 Indiana against #13 Kent State. The Hoosiers have lost 4 of their last 8 games, including to Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament. Trayce Jackson-Davis is a beast, but outside of him I don’t have too much faith in head coach Mike Woodson’s roster. Point guard Jalen Hood-Schifino has been good for the most part, but a freshman running the offense in the NCAA Tournament is not a frequent recipe for success. The Hoosiers are facing a Kent State team that has very experienced guards. The Golden Flashes won the MAC Tournament with an impressive defeat of Toledo in the championship game. Since the calendar turned to 2023, they have lost only 3 games in total. Getting 4.5 points should be enough for the underdogs to cover.
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Arizona State +6 over TCU (-110)
I’m not sure if Arizona State can pull off the upset, but 6 points are too much to pass up for a team that is getting hot at the right time. The Sun Devils played their way into the tournament by beating Arizona (on the road) and USC (in the Pac-12 Tournament). They parlayed that momentum into a dominant 98-73 First Four win over Nevada on Wednesday night. Four different players have led head coach Bobby Hurley’s squad in scoring over the past 4 contests, showcasing valuable depth that always comes in handy during March. I don’t have anything bad to say about TCU; the bottom line is that Arizona State is good enough to cover.
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