Sam Avellone
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The NCAA Tournament returns on Thursday with the first 4 games of the Sweet 16. Instead of sides and totals, player props offer another way to bet on the action during March Madness. That being said, let’s look at three player props that stand out for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups.
As always, the college basketball team at Pickswise has you covered for all things March Madness. Be sure to check out our March Madness hub for team guys, game analysis, and best bets throughout the NCAA Tournament.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Julian Strawther over 1.5 threes made (+120)
There seems to be some value in this line as Strawther has yet to hit a three in the NCAA Tournament despite 9 attempts. Strawther is one of the primary perimeter shooters for Gonzaga, as he leads the Zags in 3-point attempts while shooting better than 37% from the perimeter. Arkansas ranks 243rd in opposing three-point attempts, so I expect Strawther to have a few open looks in this contest. Strawther has made 2 or more three-pointers in 17 of Gonzaga’s 31 games, but only once in the last 5 games. He is due for some positive shooting regression from the perimeter against the Razorbacks.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Arkansas Razorbacks vs Gonzaga Bulldogs
Fabian White Jr. over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
White has been a reliable rebounder for the Cougars all season, averaging 5.8 rpg. He ranks in the top 300 among all players in offensive rebounding rate and has pulled down 3 offensive rebounds in 4 straight games in which he played a full load of minutes. He will likely have success on the offensive glass against Arizona, as the Wildcats rank 194th in opposing offensive rebounding rate and allowed TCU to grab 20 offensive rebounds in the round of 32. In addition to his offensive rebounding prowess, White grabs 14% of opposing misses while he is on the floor.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats
Jermaine Samuels over 11.5 points (-115)
Samuels averages 10.7 ppg this season, but has scored more consistently as of late. In Villanova’s postseason games, Samuels is averaging 13 ppg. He is very effective in pick-and-roll situations, as he scores 1.169 ppp as the “roller” on those plays. His effectiveness in the pick-and-roll could be difficult for Hunter Dickinson and the Wolverines to defend. As a team, Michigan ranks in just the 46th percentile in defending the roll, while Dickinson ranks in the 12th percentile himself. As long as Dickinson is on the floor, he will likely have to defend Samuels — providing us with some value on Samuels’ points props. Take the over.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Michigan Wolverines vs Villanova Wildcats
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