Caleb Wilfinger
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Following a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament has already delivered tons of upsets and excitement galore. We have 8 games on tap for Sunday, as the college hoops action should be electric for over 12 consecutive hours. With so many exciting games, I have combed through the board and found a few edges that I believe can create a parlay with an excellent payout at over 7/1 odds!
Let’s take a look at my 3-team mega parlay on Thursday, but make sure you also check out our March Madness basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
UConn -3 (-110)
Kentucky -2.5 (-110)
Michigan State ML (+125)
NCAAB parlay odds: +720
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UConn Huskies -3 (-110) over Saint Mary’s Gaels
Despite going through a period of tumult at the turn of the year, no team is playing better than the UConn Huskies over the last 6 weeks. In fact, UConn is ranked as the top team at BartTorvik since February 1, which further proves what the metrics and the “eye test” would tell you about the Huskies of late. Historically, this is a team that has the statistical profile of a national champion, as they rank 6th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency at KenPom — a good sign for their prospects this tournament.
The positive momentum for the Huskies continued into the Round of 64 against Iona on Friday, as UConn dictated the pace of the game en route to a convincing victory. And while the Huskies are in for a stiffer defensive challenge against Saint Mary’s, I still expect them to control the game and play at a pace that’s comfortable to them. The Gaels’ guards have looked shaky in recent weeks, including in their tournament opener against VCU, where the Rams clearly confused Saint Mary’s with their intense pressing defense. In fact, if it wasn’t for an injury to Ace Baldwin Jr. for VCU and the play of Mitchell Saxon on both ends, Saint Mary’s likely wouldn’t have advanced. Given the dominance and experience of the Huskies frontcourt, I like UConn to advance here.
Kentucky Wildcats -2.5 (-110) over Kansas State Wildcats
A handful of college basketball blue bloods will highlight the round of 32 slate on Saturday, and I will be focusing on Kentucky in this mega parlay. The Wildcats have been an inconsistent team this season, but there is reason for optimism among Big Blue Nation after Kentucky handled its business against Providence on Friday.
Kentucky was absolutely dominant on the glass in that victory, and that should continue against a Kansas State team that is 218th in defensive rebounding rate and 98th in offensive rebounding rate per BartTorvik. The Purple Wildcats should have a difficult time against the likes of Oscar Tshiebwe and Jacob Tobbin, and company in the paint, but I also don’t foresee great games from Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson on the other end. If either guard isn’t playing at their best, it will be hard for K-State to generate much offense in this one. I’ll back Kentucky to reach the second weekend over an inexperienced Kansas State side.
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Michigan State Spartans ML (+125) over Marquette Golden Eagles
To close out our mega parlay, we’re going with Michigan State on the money line. This game promises to be an intense contest, with both teams looking strong in convincing victories on Friday. However, the Spartans are my preferred play in this game and it comes down to a few factors. Tom Izzo has been in this position time and again, and it looks like Izzo has his team playing at their best at the perfect time. Per BartTorvik, Michigan State ranks 18th in the nation since February 1, sitting at 15th in offensive efficiency during that span. And while Marquette’s defense has picked up in recent weeks, I don’t expect the Golden Eagles to slow down the litany of Spartans ball-handlers that Izzo has at his disposal. At the end of the day, I’ll fade Shaka Smart as a favorite and live with the results.
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