Ricky Dimon
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The madness continues with the second batch of first-round games on Friday – 16 more, to be exact. It’s an embarrassment of riches on these first days, with basketball, basketball, and more basketball on offer. What will transpire on the college hardwood? Will there be upsets – the kind of stuff that defines March Madness? Or will the favorites take care of business as they being their potential pathways to the Final Four?
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Friday.
Villanova -15.5 (-110) over Delaware
The Fightin’ Blue Hens finished 5th in the Colonial Athletic Association with a 10-8 CAA record before catching fire and punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament by winning the conference tournament. An underdog champion of a small conference has to be thrilled to avoid a #16 seed, but a #15 vs #2 matchup with Villanova is not exactly a friendly one.
Delaware played the 204th-ranked strength of schedule during the regular season, so this is a massive step up in competition level. Speaking of rankings, the Blue Hens are 212th in defensive efficiency. Now they have to face Villanova, a veteran squad with seniors at 4 out of 5 starting positions. With multi-National Championship head coach Jay Wright still at the helm, the Wildcats operate methodically and efficiently on both offense and defense. They rank as the 8th-best team in adjusted offensive efficiency against what was the 12th-ranked strength of schedule.
It’s hard to see the Hens containing ‘Nova. They have played against only one other opponent that ranks in the top 65 in adjusted offensive efficiency (Davidson) and gave up 93 points to those Wildcats. Uh oh!
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens vs Villanova Wildcats
Notre Dame +4 (-110) over Alabama
A team that already has a March Madness win under its belt heading into the official first round is a dangerous one. That is exactly what Notre Dame accomplished, as it outlasted Rutgers 89-87 in double-overtime during First Four action on Wednesday night. Despite being an #11 seed compared to Alabama’s #6, the Fighting Irish actually have been more successful this season in terms of their record compared to that of the Crimson Tide. Notre Dame finished tied for second in the ACC standings, while Alabama was 8th in the SEC and lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament.
As shown in their First Four game, the Irish can score a ton. It did take multiple overtimes, sure, but they eventually caught fire from the field. Head coach Mike Brey’s squad should be able to do the same against a ‘Bama squad that allows 76.4 points per contest. The Tide have lost 3 games in a row and they struggle on defense, so the Irish should keep this one close and maybe even win it outright.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Davidson ML (-105) over Michigan State
Davidson boasts one of the best offenses in the country. While the Wildcats do not run their motion offense at a quick pace, they play efficiently and methodically with excellent half-court sets that are loaded with shooters. In fact, the ‘Cats have 6 guys in their rotation who average more than 20 minutes per game and shoot 37.9% or better from 3-point range. Because of their balance, the Wildcats rate as one of the premier jump-shooting teams in the country (97th percentile per Synergy). They score 74 ppg on 47.4% shooting in their games away from home.
This is a neutral-site contest, of course, but Greenville, South Carolina is just a 2-hour drive from Davidson’s campus. Led by Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Luka Brakovic, the ‘Cats can pull off what would only be an upset according to seed (#10 against #7). This isn’t one of head coach Tom Izzo’s best Michigan State teams.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Friday
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