Sam Avellone
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The most common ways to bet March Madness are against the spread, on the money line, or over/under the total. If you are looking for something a little more, then player props are a good option. While there are plenty of player props to choose from for each of the 16 games on Thursday, I spotted a few that appear to have some value on DraftKings.
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Eli Brooks (Michigan) over 1.5 threes made (-130)
Michigan starting point guard DeVante’ Jones has a usage rate of 22.2% and takes 20.1% of Michigan’s shots while he is on the floor. Unfortunately for UM, he will not play against Colorado State, so I expect Brooks to have the ball in his hands more than usual. The Rams rank 337th in opposing 3-point rate, allowing opponents to shoot 44.4% of shots from the perimeter. Brooks shoots 38.9% from distance and has made at least 2 treys in 3 out of Michigan’s last 4 games away from home. Furthermore, Brooks is 6-for-15 from deep in his last 3 games. Michigan plays Colorado State at the same venue that hosted the Big Ten Tournament, so Brooks will be familiar with the environment.
Matthew Mayer (Baylor) over 10.5 points (+100)
Mayer takes 25.7% of Baylor’s shots, which leads the team. He has struggled to produce offensively as of late, but those struggles came against some of the Big 12’s best teams down the stretch. Baylor now steps down in class to play Norfolk State, which has the 357th-ranked strength of schedule and lost by 40 points to Xavier, which is currently playing in the NIT. Mayer can score from anywhere with his length and shooting ability, and should be able to take advantage of inferior defenders. He has scored at least 11 points in 7 out of 11 non-conference games in which he played more than 15 minutes.
Tony Perkins (Iowa) over 9.5 points (-130)
Iowa vs Richmond has the second-highest total on the board Thursday, so there should be plenty of scoring from both sides. Star players like Jacob Gilyard and Keegan Murray will be popular picks for player prop bets, but Tony Perkins offers some value at 9.5 points. Perkins did not play more than 20 minutes very often for much of the season, but he logged 26 minutes against Nebraska on February 25th and scored 20 points. Since that game, he has played an average of 26 mpg and scored an average of 11 ppg over 7 games against Big Ten opponents.
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