Ricky Dimon
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The NCAA Tournament is here. That’s right; it begins today. No, you do not have to finalize your brackets by 6:40 pm Eastern tonight; the First Four is not a part of those festivities. But it is the Big Dance, officially tipping off arguably the best three months on the sports calendar.
Let’s take a look at our mega parlay for the start of the NCAA Tournament.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi ML (+145)
Indiana 1-10 win margin (+172)
Bryant +3.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +1172
For this parlay we are going with two underdogs – one on the money line – and a favorite. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi ML over Texas Southern (+145)
The Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (23-11) and the Texas Southern Tigers (18-12) will battle for the #16 seed and a shot at #1 Kansas in the opening round. The Islanders punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament after defeating Southeastern Louisiana 73-65 to win the Southland Conference Tournament. Although the Isles finished conference play ranked within the bottom half of the league in points, field-goal percentage, and 3-point percentage, they held their Southland Conference opponents to the 3rd-fewest points, 3rd-lowest field-goal percentage, and lowest 3-point percentage this season.
Junior forward Isaac Mushila leads the team with 13.5 ppg and a team-high 9.5 rpg, which ranks 2nd in the conference. Texas Southern does not have a single player scoring in double figures and it commits the 27th-most turnovers in the nation and ranks 327th out of 358 college basketball teams in assists. On the other hand, Texas A&M-CC’s defense is averaging the 28th-most steals; their opponents are committing the 14th-most turnovers per game. Take the Islanders straight up.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for the First Four matchups
Indiana 1-10 win margin over Wyoming (+172)
The Hoosiers beat Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament to punch a late ticket to the dance. Trayce Jackson-Davis is a force to be reckoned with in the low post. TJD averaged 25.3 points per game in the conference tourney. He is great at drawing fouls, so if Wyoming’s Graham Ike gets into early foul trouble it would be a major hit to the Cowboys on both ends of the floor. Wyoming is a balanced team, ranking in the top 70 in both KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Of course, those numbers have come at the expense of unspectacular competition.
Indiana should win this game, but at the same time it probably won’t be a blowout. Keep in mind that it is expected to be a relatively low-scoring affair, with the total set at 132.5. Indiana may not score enough points to win by more than 10.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Wyoming Cowboys vs Indiana Hoosiers
Bryant +3.5 over Wright State (-110)
Bryant ranks 7th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and ranks 5th in transition offense rate per Synergy. Wright State’s defense has struggled to defend in transition this season, ranking in just the 22nd percentile in transition defense. Bryant also ranks 44th nationally in 3-point attempt rate, so this game could resemble a glorified pick-up game.
On the other end of the court, the Bulldogs’ defensive identity could work in their favor against Wright State. Bryant has played zone on more than 68 percent of its defensive possessions and the Raiders rank in just the 18th percentile in zone offense this year. A likely reason for their zone offense struggles is that they prefer to play through the post, as evidenced by their ranking of 26th in post-up frequency per Synergy. Simply throwing the ball to Grant Basile could be difficult to do against Bryant’s zone, as the Bulldogs allowed the 15th-lowest post-up rate in the country. The metrics favor the ‘Dogs.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Bryant Bulldogs vs Wright State Raiders
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