Caleb Wilfinger
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Following a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA Tournament has truly has lived up to the March Madness billing. We’ve had a plethora of massive upsets, a trio of unlikely teams reach the Final Four, and tons of thrilling matchups that came right down to the wire.
Here at Pickswise, we’ve asked our best college hoops handicappers to give their best bets for this weekend’s Final Four in Houston. That’s 5 best bets for college basketball’s biggest stage, all in 1 place! Let’s get into who our experts are backing with their best bets this weekend.
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Caleb Wilfinger’s Final Four best bet: UConn team total over 77.5 (-115)
I’m not sure if there’s any team in the country that can slow down this UConn offense at the moment. Over the course of this tournament, the Huskies’ average margin of victory has been a whopping 22.5 points, having won each of their tournament games by at least 15 or more points. We knew that Connecticut had elite length and size, but now the offense is humming. Furthermore, these offensive outbursts have come against the likes of Iona, Arkansas and Saint Mary’s — all elite defenses on the perimeter.
On the flip side, Miami is outside of the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, as the Hurricanes have been winning with offense in this magical run to the Final Four. Miami has been winning by outscoring teams, but the ‘Canes did allow Houston and Texas to get whatever they wanted on the other end — those teams just didn’t make enough open shots. Miami’s guards are excellent and should keep them in striking distance for the majority of the game, but the Hurricanes are clearly overmatched on defense here. This game should be played at a fast pace so instead of worrying about a full game spread, I’ll bank on UConn’s offense to keep rolling en route to another 80+ point showing.
Check out our full Miami vs UConn predictions
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Matt Marquart’s Final Four best bet: Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State Under 132
I expect to see this game played to a lower possession count than the projected 66 possessions by KenPom, mainly because San Diego State is great at dictating tempo and denying transition. San Diego has allowed the fifth-lowest transition rate in the country this season, and this has continued in the NCAA Tournament. Three of San Diego State’s four opponents rank in the top 60 in transition rate according to Synergy, with Creighton (112th) being the only one that did not. Only the game Alabama finished with a higher possession total than expected, but all four games stayed under the total.
Even though FAU plays in transition at a top-40 rate, we’ve seen two of their four NCAA Tournament games finish with 60 possessions or lower. This suggests they’re willing to play in the half-court as well. Both defenses are strong at the rim, so we could see a game with lower efficiency with both teams reliant on jump-shooting.
Be sure to check out our complete Final Four predictions — we went 7-1 in the Elite 8!
Kyle Lupas’ Final Four best bet: Miami Hurricanes +5.5 (-110)
Listen, if Jim Larrañaga can lead George Mason to a Final Four, who’s to say he can’t take it one step further by taking the Miami Hurricanes to their 1st ever NCAA championship game? The Canes are 5.5-point underdogs against the UConn Huskies, but it’s a role that Larrañaga and his team have come to embrace. They’re 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season and an incredible 33-12 ATS over the past 3 seasons, making Larrañaga the most profitable coach in college basketball when slated as the underdog.
Miami’s defense hasn’t been great (104th per KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency), but the Hurricanes’ offense has more than made up for it, scoring 85, 89 and 88 against Indiana, Houston and Texas on their journey to the Final Four. Their guard play has been impeccable all season long, and in their 4 tournament games they’ve had 3 different leading scorers. It won’t be an easy feat facing a UConn team that’s won their tournament games by an average of 22.5 points, but I think the Canes give the Huskies their first close game of the tournament.
Lock Mamba’s Final Four best bet: Miami Hurricanes to win the National Championship (+450)
The last four teams left in this tournament are surprising, but that will not make the games any less exciting. Any team has a chance to win this year’s title, but I see the most value on Miami to win it all at +450.
Part of why Miami has so much value is that the Hurricanes continue to prove people wrong game after game. They have been the underdog in each of their last 3 games to Indiana, Houston, and Texas, yet continue to win games with their dynamic guard play. Miami has the best backcourt in the country in Nigel Pack, Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, which gives them a great chance to win the title in a wide-open Final Four. We have seen how much experienced guards mean to a program this tournament, and Miami has just that. Defeating UConn is no easy task, but the ‘Canes have the firepower to do so. From there, Miami would likely be favored in a National Championship matchup against either San Diego State or Florida Atlantic.
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