Sam Avellone
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The Elite Eight kicks off on Saturday with 2 exciting matchups. While most of us might have expected at least one #1 seed to be playing on the first day of the Elite Eight, both Gonzaga and Arizona lost in the Sweet 16. Thus no #1 seeds play on Saturday. In the first matchup, #5 Houston returns to the Elite Eight for the second straight year to take on #2 Villanova — which has not been to the Elite Eight since its title run in 2018. In the second game, #2 Duke returns to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2019 to meet #4 Arkansas — which, like Houston, is back on this stage for the second consecutive year.
There may be just 2 games to choose from on Saturday, but there are still a couple spots I like more than the others. Let’s take a look at 2 bets that stand out in these Elite Eight matchups.
Houston ML (-135) over Villanova
At #5, Houston was drastically under-seeded. The Cougars have proved that with convincing wins in the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament — including a Sweet 16 win over #1 Arizona. Arizona averaged 84 ppg this season and ranked 7th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, yet the Cougars held the Wildcats to 60 points on Thursday. The 60-point outing was the second-lowest scoring performance this season for Arizona, who scored under 70 points in just 4 games including the loss to Houston.
Houston ranks 10th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and allows just 59 ppg on 37.4% shooting from the field. The Cougars are particularly strong at defending the pick-and-roll, which Villanova’s offense runs at the 26th-highest rate, per Synergy. The Wildcats rank in the 96th percentile in their pick-and-roll offense and can typically score with ease in these sets, as they have multiple scoring threats who can hit perimeter shots or roll to the basket for shots at the rim. However, Houston allows the 2nd-lowest points per possession on pick-and-rolls in the country. The Cougars pair their top 10 defense with a top 10 offense that scores 75.7 ppg on 46.9% shooting from the field. They are also elite on the offensive glass, as they rank 3rd in offensive rebounding rate. Villanova could be vulnerable in this aspect, as the Wildcats rank just 196th in opposing offensive rebounding rate and are 0-4 SU against opponents who rank in the top 12 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
Where Houston is vulnerable is the free throw line, as the Cougars make just 66.7% of their free throw attempts. Villanova makes 82.6% of its free throw attempts, which is the best in the country. For as good as Houston is defensively, the Cougars rank 291st in opposing free throw rate and could bail Villanova out with fouls late in the shot clock. Considering this should be a closely-contested, low-scoring game, I prefer taking the Houston ML instead of laying the points.
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Duke -4 over Arkansas
Duke looked impressive and balanced on Thursday against the most efficient defense in the country per KenPom’s metrics. The Blue Devils scored 49 second half points in their 5-point win against Texas Tech, led by Paolo Banchero’s efficient 22 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Mark Williams chipped in with 16 points and 8 rebounds, while Jeremy Roach added 15 points behind 7/10 shooting from the field.
The Razorbacks have a tendency to muck up games with their aggressive style, as they like to create contact and get to the free throw line as much as possible. In fact, Arkansas ranks 26th nationally in free throw rate and scores the 8th-highest percentage of points from the free throw line. Unfortunately for Arkansas, Duke is exceptional at defending without fouling. The Blue Devils rank 2nd in opposing free throw rate and hold opponents to the third-lowest percentage of points from the free throw line. If the Razorbacks are unable to rely on points from the free throw line, it might be difficult to keep up with Duke’s offense considering they rank 244th in effective FG% and 316th in 3-point%.
Duke ranks 2nd in KenPom’s offensive efficiency, 8th in effective FG%, and 21st in turnover rate. Despite being a team made up of mostly freshmen, Duke has 5 players who average at least 10 ppg and appears to be too deep offensively for the Razorbacks. The Blue Devils have shown the ability to beat some of the country’s best defensive teams already this season, as they are 6-1 SU against teams who rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency (Arkansas 11th). Arkansas may keep this close early, but expect the Blue Devils to pull away late.
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