Caleb Wilfinger
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Following a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA Tournament has got off to a terrific start. Now that we’re in the second week of the action, these Sweet 16 games feature the best teams remaining in the field and we should see some excellent matchups as a result. I’m currently on an 18-9 run over my last 27 best bets in this column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Here is a look at my best bets for Friday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games, especially after we went 7-1 last night.
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Sweet 16 money line parlay: Creighton over Princeton & Texas over Xavier (-115)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We’ll be focusing on Creighton and Texas in a money line parlay for our first best bet. The Blue Jays are 10-point favorites against the Princeton Tigers, while the Longhorns are 4-point favorites over the Xavier Musketeers. However, due to end-of-game variance expected with a single-elimination tournament, I’d rather stay away from laying points. Instead, I’ll opt for a money line parlay that pays out at about -115 odds.
For starters, Creighton has been extremely impressive thus far in the NCAA Tournament, getting past NC State in the Round of 64 before dispatching Baylor in the Round of 32 in convincing fashion. If you pay attention to the likes of KenPom and BartTorvik, the Jays were likely underseeded in this tournament compared to their statistical profiles. This has been one of the best teams in the nation since the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner, as the Jays rank in the top 25 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Princeton has had an extremely impressive run to the Sweet 16, but the Tigers’ run should end here.
Over in the Midwest Region, the Texas Longhorns are another team that is playing their best basketball at the right time. Texas has looked impressive in both of its wins thus far, including a strong closing stretch to fend off a red-hot Penn State team to reach the Sweet 16. The Longhorns are used to playing in the halfcourt, so they’ll hold an edge if they’re able to control the pace of this game against a Xavier team that is much more successful in transition. Jack Nunge could cause problems inside, but Texas has the clear edge with its excellent perimeter defense, to say nothing of the Longhorns’ trio of guards (Marcus Carr, Tyrese Hunter and Sir’Jabari Rice). We should see runs from both teams in this game, but ultimately I have Texas’ defensive prowess being the deciding factor.
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Houston Cougars -7 (-110) over Miami Hurricanes
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For my second best bet, I’ll be looking to back the Houston Cougars to win convincingly over Miami. The Hurricanes were extremely fortunate to get past Drake in the opening round, as the Bulldogs scored just 1 point in the final 6 minutes to lose that contest. And while the Hurricanes were fantastic in a win over Indiana, this Cougars team is an entirely different animal on defense — particularly on the perimeter.
Houston showed its depth and defensive excellence in a dominant second-half effort over Auburn and I’d expect that momentum to continue on Friday, especially since Marcus Sasser should be close to 100% for this one. The Cougars should feast on the offensive glass and I expect them to control the tempo and limit the transition opportunities for Miami’s terrific guards. Given the matchup advantages on both ends, I have to side with Houston here.
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