Caleb Wilfinger
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Following a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament has got off to a terrific start. Now that we’re in the second week of the action, these Sweet 16 games feature the best teams remaining in the field and we should see some excellent matchups as a result. I’m currently on a 16-9 run over my last 25 best bets in this column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Here is a look at my best bets for Thursday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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UConn Huskies -3.5 (-110) over Arkansas Razorbacks
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
UConn went through a period of turmoil at the turn of the year, but no team is playing better than the Huskies over the last 2 months. In fact, BartTorvik has UConn ranked as the top team in the nation since February 1 — a ranking that backs up what the metrics and the “eye test” would tell you about the Huskies during that span. Historically, this is a team that has the statistical profile of a national champion; UConn sits at 3rd in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency at KenPom.
The positive momentum for the Huskies continued into their opening 2 games of the tournament, as they dictated the pace of both of their games against Iona and Saint Mary’s en route to a pair of convincing victories. And while the Huskies are in for a stiffer defensive challenge against an athletic Arkansas team, I still expect them to control the game on both ends and play at their pace. Arkansas was able to get past Kansas thanks to its success in the paint, but I don’t see that continuing against Adama Sanogo — who has arguably been the best player in the tournament. Given the dominance and experience of the Huskies’ frontcourt, I like UConn to advance and win by multiple possessions.
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Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 (-110) vs UCLA Bruins
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This could very well be the best game of the Sweet 16, if not the entire tournament. Both Gonzaga and UCLA had stiff tests in the Round of 32, but the talent and experience of each team prevailed en route to setting up this anticipated showdown in Las Vegas. Since losing to Saint Mary’s back on February 4, Gonzaga is playing its best basketball of the season. Mark Few’s team ran through the WCC tournament and that momentum carried into last weekend’s games, including a terrific second half to knock off an underseeded TCU team after trailing at halftime.
These teams are complete opposites in terms of style of play, as the Bulldogs play at a very quick tempo while UCLA likes to slow down and play in the halfcourt. The Bruins have an outstanding defense, but they will be without the services of Jaylen Clark, who is their best defensive player by far. Not only is this an enormous loss, but this Gonzaga offense sits at 1st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric — a level of offensive efficiency and execution that the Bruins simply haven’t faced this season. UCLA played poor offensive teams in the first weekend, where the Bruins were able to quickly dictate the pace and overcome some occasional offensive shortcomings with terrific defense. Mick Cronin’s team won’t have that same leverage against a Gonzaga side that is playing its best at the perfect time. This one should come down to the wire, and don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs win outright.
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