Caleb Wilfinger
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March Madness is finally here! After a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament has got off to a terrific start. We’ve got 16 games on tap for Friday, as the college hoops action should be electric for over 12 consecutive hours. I went 3-0 in my Day 1 best bets, which brought me to 14-6 over my last 20 best bets in this column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Let’s take a look at my best bets for Friday, but make sure you also check out our March Madness basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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Drake Bulldogs ML (+115) over Miami Hurricanes
Odds available at PointsBet Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This game has been circled on my card all week, and it’s one that I’ve already touched on in previous articles. And after delving into the matchup even further, my opinion hasn’t changed. Drake is one of the most experienced teams in the field, boasting a stable of 5th-year starters to go along with the Missouri Valley Player of the Year in Tucker DeVries. This is a team that I was high on heading into the season, but struggled mightily out of the gate and into the new year. However, since the calendar turned to 2023, Drake has won 16 of its last 18 games, including a convincing showing in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.
Per BartTorvik’s metrics, the Bulldogs have been a top 15 team in the nation over the last month — going 8-1 against the spread in those games. The same can’t be said for Miami, as the Hurricanes have been inconsistent during the past month and fell to a #5 seed in the process. Earlier in the week, the Hurricanes’ big man Norchad Omier was expected to miss this game, which would give Drake a noticeable leg up in the paint. There is optimism that Omier will play, but I don’t expect him to be at full strength. Regardless of Omier’s status at tip-off, I’ll ride with the Bulldogs to advance here.
Be sure to check out our full Drake vs Miami predictions
Creighton Blue Jays -5 (-105) over NC State Wolfpack
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Creighton is a team that I’ve been high on for the majority of the season, but especially since the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner in the middle. The Blue Jays center is an integral part of their success, and his impact has been felt on both since his return from injury in mid-January. And while they didn’t end the season on the highest note, this is still a good matchup for a Jays team that’s used to facing much tougher defenses than NC State. The Wolfpack check in at 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom, and that comes on the back of playing ACC offenses for most of the campaign. This efficient Creighton attack will likely be a shock to the system for Kevin Keatts’ team.
Per Synergy, NC State employs a press defense at the 15th-highest rate in the country, which generates turnovers at the third-highest rate in the ACC. However, that strategy should not work against Creighton’s experienced and skilled backcourt. The Blue Jays actually rank in the 99th percentile in press offense this season, scoring at a clip of 1.12 points per possession. Creighton also runs a ton of pick-and-roll with Kalkbrenner and either Ryan Nembhard or Trey Alexander. Given that NC State ranks in just the 42nd percentile in pick-and-roll defense according to Synergy, the Jays should be able to consistently get to the basket and score on Friday. Back Creighton to cover this manageable number.
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USC Trojans vs Michigan State Spartans first half under 65 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For my final best bet, I’m going back to the well with another first-half under. With a 12:15 pm ET opening tip on Friday, this game between USC and Michigan State will be the first game of the day. As I mentioned in yesterday’s column, the first 20 minutes of action typically aren’t filled with points and explosive action during this early start window. In fact, over the last 25 years, betting the under on first-half totals under 70 during the early window has been quite profitable. These unders have hit at a 66% rate heading into yesterday, and that continued in the West Virginia vs Maryland game to start the day. This angle makes sense, as teams are clearly nervous in their opening game of the tournament, in addition to the early start.
In this instance, both USC and Michigan State don’t play all that quickly (ranked 140th and 304th respectively in adjusted tempo per KenPom), and I don’t expect that to change in a high-pressure setting. Let’s start off our day with an early under to get things going.
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