Caleb Wilfinger
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March Madness is finally here! After a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament could be one of the best in recent memory. We’ve got 16 games on tap for Thursday, as the college hoops action should be electric for over 12 consecutive hours. I’m 11-6 over my last 17 best bets in this column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Let’s take a look at my best bets for Thursday, but make sure you also check out our March Madness basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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Penn State Nittany Lions +3.5 (-110) over Texas A&M Aggies
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Penn State was flirting with the bubble for the majority of conference play, but Micah Shrewsberry’s team has been playing like a top-30 team in recent weeks. The Nittany Lions ended the season with 2 buzzer-beater victories over Northwestern and Maryland, before rattling off 3 straight wins in the Big Ten tournament. Having come just one shot short of knocking off Purdue in the Big Ten title game, this is a team that is playing with a ton of confidence.
One thing that gives the Nittany Lions a major leg-up in this matchup is that they won’t turn the ball over against this aggressive Texas A&M defense and they won’t foul. The Aggies thrive on getting to the foul line, but their offense doesn’t do much otherwise. This game should be played at a very slow pace, as both teams have no problem with taking 20+ seconds per possession on offense. However, this should favor the underdog Nittany Lions as well, especially with how well they shoot from beyond the arc. In a game that should come down to the final few possessions, I’ll gladly take the points with the ‘dog here.
Be sure to check out our full Penn State vs Texas A&M predictions
Furman Paladins +6.5 (-110) over Virginia Cavaliers
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This will be one of the most popular upset picks for sharp bettors and the general public alike, and I won’t be going against that train. Furman is a deep and experienced group that shoots a ton of 3s and makes them at an efficient clip. The Paladins have the offense (33rd in adjusted efficiency at KenPom) to keep up with most teams in the field, especially a Virginia team that struggled mightily to score against most ACC competition over the last 4-6 weeks.
Furman has roughly a 35% chance to knock off the Cavaliers, and #4 seeds with a 70% or lower chance to reach the Round of 32 represent half of the first-round losses for #4 seeds in the last 20 years. Given that Virginia is 34th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency outside the top 75, the Cavaliers profile closer to a #7 or #8 seed and certainly shouldn’t be 6.5-point favorites over this veteran Furman group that has played with each other for over 3 years now.
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West Virginia Mountaineers over Maryland Terrapins 1st Half Under 64.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With a 12:15 p.m. ET opening tip on Thursday, this game between West Virginia and Maryland will be the first game of the Round of 64. While this is an exciting time for sports fans and bettors across the globe, the first 20 minutes of action typically aren’t filled with points and explosive action. Over the last 25 years, betting the under on 1st half totals under 70 has been quite profitable, as these unders have hit at a 66% rate. This angle makes sense, as teams are clearly nervous in their opening game of the tournament, plus the games typically start at around Noon local time (or 11:15 a.m. local time in this case).
In this case, both West Virginia and Maryland don’t play quickly (ranked 114th and 314th in adjusted tempo per KenPom), and I don’t expect that to change in a high-pressure setting. Let’s get on the board with an early under to start the tournament.
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