Filip Tomic
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The #4 vs #5 matchup is always an interesting one in the NBA playoffs and this year’s Jazz vs Mavericks series should be no exception. The season series between the teams was split 2-2 and 3 of the 4 meetings were decided by fewer than 10 points, with each team winning their home games.
Can the Mavericks overcome the injury to Luka Doncic? Or will the Jazz finally put together a solid run in the postseason, something that has eluded them in the past few seasons? Let’s break it down!
How severe is the injury to Luka Doncic?
I can only imagine how Luka Doncic feels right now. The injury he sustained in the final game of the regular season against San Antonio has severely impacted the way oddsmakers are pricing this series. There are still no concrete updates on his calf. The team didn’t disclose how much time he will miss, but with 6 days in between the Spurs game and Game 1 against the Jazz, I’m not sure that’ll be enough for him to fully recover.
That is a real shame, because we are all missing out if Doncic doesn’t play. He leads the Mavs in almost every meaningful statistical category this year, and without him they would be a sub- .500 team and have very little chance of advancing. In his last 2 games against Utah he had 30+ points on very high efficiency and double-digit rebounds as Dallas won both of those games. Even if he misses just 1 game that could prove to be the difference between these evenly-matched opponents
One final run for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert?
Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert have had their differences over the years and by the looks of it they still haven’t resolved their issues. Earlier this month after the Jazz lost to Golden State, someone pointed out an interesting stat – Mitchell passed the ball to Gobert a total of 151 times this season, which is an average of just 2.3 passes per game. With Mitchell averaging 3 turnovers per game, he essentially gives the ball away to his opponents more often than he passes to his starting center.
Head coach Quin Snyder will have to act fast and try to repair that relationship if the Jazz want to advance. This team ended the regular season by losing 7 of the last 11 games, blowing a couple of really big leads in the process. In the end it all comes down to their best players working on their relationship, if they are able to be on the same page I can see the Jazz advancing.
What will decide this series?
I would say first and foremost it depends on the health of Luka Doncic and then secondly it’s the 3-point shooting of the Utah Jazz. Aside from Gobert, nobody on the Jazz team is capable of slowing Luka when he has it going on, but if he misses any games that could prove to be the difference. Dallas went 8-9 in the 17 games Doncic missed during the regular season.
Utah tends to rely quite a lot on long-distance shots ,making 14.5 threes per game (2nd in the NBA) on 36% shooting (11th) and that’s all well and good when it’s falling. When it’s not, then the issues begin. This team doesn’t look like it has a Plan B – their interior presence is basically only Gobert and aside from Bojan Bogdanovic I don’t see anyone being capable of knocking down shots from the mid-range consistently.
Check out our series breakdown of Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers
Jazz vs Mavericks predictions
Both teams come into this series after disappointing exits in last year’s postseason against the LA Clippers. They split the regular-season series 2-2 and each team took care of business at home. It might sound too early, but I have a feeling Game 1 could decide the outcome of this series. If Doncic has to sit out that’s an opportunity for the Jazz to steal one on the road, so it’s up to coach Jason Kidd to decide whether or not to risk it with his superstar. With both teams being more defense-oriented, it could be a low-scoring series, as we saw with 3 of the 4 games played in the regular season. As of writing this article, the Jazz are 4.5-point favorites on the road, and I’m leaning toward them winning the series in 6 games, but don’t be surprised if it goes the distance.
Utah Jazz to advance at -290 odds on FanDuel.
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