Filip Tomic
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Following last night’s +1282 same-game parlay winner on the Bulls vs Hawks game, I’m going at it again with the Wizards vs Heat game tonight.
You can catch this matchup at 7:30pm ET as part of NBA TV’s double-header, followed by the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors squaring off at 10pm ET. My same game parlay for Wizards vs Heat is available below, but don’t forget to check our predictions on the side and total for the rest of Tuesday’s 8-game night.
Let’s get into it!
Miami Heat 1-10 Win Margin (+170)
Jimmy Butler to Score 25+ Points (+180)
Gabe Vincent Over 4.5 Assists (-115)
Parlay odds: +1162
Miami Heat 1-10 Win Margin (+170)
The last 3 of 4 Miami Heat wins have been within the 10-point margin, so they aren’t exactly blowing teams out right now. They’ve won 5 of 6 overall and 5 in a row at home, so I’m expecting them to get the win tonight. However, one stat that stood out to me when doing the analysis here is their record in games when they are playing as the favorite. They’ve been able to cover just once in the last 7 games when the oddsmakers favor them. They enter tonight’s matchup as a 6.5-point favorite. Washington is missing a lot of players who are in Covid protocols, including Bradley Beal, but oddly enough they’ve done well without him this season. In their last 12 games vs Miami, they are 8-4 ATS so they will put up a fight here regardless who takes the floor. All in all, I think Miami gets the job done, but in a close game.
Be sure to check out our Tuesday NBA Mega Parlay (+1418 odds!)
Jimmy Butler to Score 25+ Points (+180)
The days of the Miami Heat looking at Max Strus, KZ Okpala and Gabe Vincent to carry them offensively are finally over. Jimmy Butler has returned from a long lay-off due to a tailbone injury and has made an instant impact. He led his team to a 10-point win over Orlando in a low-scoring game by scoring 17 points. His shot was a bit off in the 2 games he has played since returning, but that should improve once he gets back into the groove.
Washington is the perfect team for that to happen against, as he has dropped 29 and 32 points in 2 games against them this season. He also shot an identical 11-for-19 in both games and scored all those points without a single 3-pointer made. The Wizards are missing a lot of players right now, and they are struggling defensively. Over their last 3 games they’ve given up 112.3 points per game, and I think Jimmy will get his in this one.
Gabe Vincent Over 4.5 Assists (-115)
Vincent’s role has increased quite a lot this season with Miami, especially since Kyle Lowry has entered the health and safety protocols. He finds himself starting and playing 30+ minutes on a regular basis now. For the month of December, he is averaging exactly 4.5 assists per game and in 3 of his last 4 games, he has gone over 4.5 assists with 8, 7 and 5 against Orlando and Detroit twice. The game against Orlando finished with a final score of 93-83 over the weekend, and I’m guessing tonight’s matchup against Washington will produce a lot more points. That should translate into more possessions and naturally more assist opportunities for Vincent.
Tyler Herro also struggled against Orlando, but I expect a much better game from him as well. If that’s the case, Vincent will have one more guy to pass to who can make shots from deep. There’s also a good chance P.J. Tucker will return following a knee injury, so it could be assists galore for Vincent in this one.
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