Andrew Ortenberg
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The NBA is approaching the home stretch, and we have another full slate on Tuesday. There is a solid card with 5 games on the docket, including a couple of highly anticipated showdowns. What better way to celebrate the weekend than with some first-basket bets? Let’s dive into them, using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bulls vs Wizards: Rui Hachimura +750
To start us off I think Hachimura has a lot of value at +750. When handicapping first basket prop bets, one of the most important factors is who will start with ball. And the Wizards have a clear better chance of getting the first possession. Bulls center Nikola Vucevic is only winning 41 percent of his jump balls this season, while new Washington big man Kristaps Porzingis is north of 63 percent. Porzingis is far too chalky for my liking at +350 and even Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is at +600, but Hachimura makes the most sense to me.
The third-year pro has seen rises in his field goal attempts and scoring in each of the past two months. Remember, what matters most for these first basket props is per minute volume, since we already know who will be on the floor when the first basket is scored. Hachimura is scoring 12 points per game in March which might not seem like a ton, but he’s doing it in only 23.5 minutes per game. That’s more than 18 points per 36 minutes.
In other words, he’s making the most of his time on the floor. In Washington’s most recent game, Hachimura drained the first bucket of the game and also took six shots in the first 7.5 minutes.
Check out our full game preview for Bulls vs Wizards
Jazz vs Clippers: Donovan Mitchell +410
I went with a little bit more of a longshot for our first play, so now I’m going with the favorite here. Mitchell just makes too much sense here. For starters, Clippers center Ivica Zubac is winning less than 40 percent of his tip offs this season, while Rudy Gobert and his lengthy arms are above 57 percent. And Mitchell’s shooting volume is just absolutely ridiculous right now.
There was a game a couple weeks ago where Mitchell took 32 shots from the floor, and he’s attempted at least 21 in eight of his last nine. In Utah’s most recent contest against the Mavericks, Mitchell took eight shots in the first seven minutes of the game, which is pretty eye-popping.
He also made two of the team’s first three baskets in that one. And that was actually his most quiet game volume-wise of the past couple weeks! He’ll be chucking it freely once again here.
If you want to go really big, a Hachimura-Mitchell parlay pays out at +4200!
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