Filip Tomic
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The second round of the NBA playoffs gets underway tonight in the Western Conference as the Denver Nuggets host Game 1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The 2 teams split the 4 regular season meetings, who will get off to a better start here? Tipoff is at 7:00 pm ET on TNT and I have prepared a Same Game Parlay that is available below.
Also head over to our NBA Picks page for picks on the side and totals.
Let’s dive into my bet now!
DEN Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 made threes (-154)
Rudy Gobert to record 2+ blocks (-115)
Same Game Parlay odds: +413
DEN Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
These 2 teams were neck and neck during the regular season, with just 1 win separating them in the final standings. Each team also won a road game in head-to-head meetings, splitting the 4 games — with just 1 of them being close. For Game 1 I would give a slight edge to the Nuggets; after all, they have the experience here being the current NBA champions. Jamal Murray had enough time to heal from the calf injury that almost caused him to miss the final game vs the Lakers.
Minnesota will be happy with its first-round sweep of the Suns, but this series will likely be much different. The Timberwolves have been competitive in terms of covering the spread, going 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, but Denver has pretty much owned them at Ball Arena — winning 6 of the last 7 games there. Nikola Jokic was a tough matchup for Rudy Gobert; the Serb averaged 33.3 points and 11.8 rebounds in the 4 regular-season meetings while shooting over 58% from the field. It might take a game or 2 for Minnesota to come up with a proper gameplan against him, so I’m taking Denver to get a statement win in the series opener.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 made threes (-154)
It might sound like a cliché, but I really feel like Michael Porter Jr.’s contribution could be the key difference in this series. We saw what he did against the Lakers, averaging 22.8 points per game on 55-48-77 shooting splits. Those type of numbers would be impressive for a number one scoring option, let alone the third option — which Porter Jr. is behind Jokic and Murray. He was hitting the 3-ball at a 38% rate vs Minnesota during the regular season; that will probably go into the mid to high 40s as the series starts with two home games for the Nuggets. Count on Porter Jr. to have a good game.
Rudy Gobert to record 2+ blocks (-115)
A lot will depend on Rudy Gobert how this series pans out. The Frenchman enjoyed a very productive series against the Suns, especially on the offensive end. This series will require an adjustment from him and that entails upping his defensive presence down low. Denver is one of the most prolific teams when it comes to paint scoring; it finished the regular season averaging 53.5 points per game down low, the 5th-highest mark in the entire NBA. Stopping Jokic will be tough, but Gobert can at least use his length to make life tough on him. During the 3 regular-season meetings, the Timberwolves’ center posted an average of 2 blocks per game, we just saw him collect a pair of swats in the final game of the Suns series. Minnesota cannot afford to run with Denver, so look for the visitors to slow down the tempo and lure the defending champs on the inside. Hopefully Gobert shows us why he is the Defensive Player of the Year.
