Filip Tomic
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With a 45-point win in Game 6, the Minnesota Timberwolves forced a Game 7 in their series vs the defending champions Denver Nuggets. Can Ant Man lead his Wolves into their 2nd ever Conference Finals or will Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets continue their title defense? Tip-off is at 8 pm ET on TNT, I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.
For predictions on the side and total for Sunday’s Game 7 of the Knicks vs Pacers series visit our NBA Picks page.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
DEN Nuggets ML (-200)
Nikola Jokic 2+ Made Threes (+134)
Naz Reid to Score 10+ Points (+140)
Rudy Gobert to Record 10+ Rebounds (-330)
Same Game Parlay odds: +794
DEN Nuggets ML (-200)
It has been a thrilling series so far between the Timberwolves and Nuggets, but this is where the championship experience of Denver will show. Game 6 was a night to forget for the defending champs as they lost by 45 points, but I expect their focus to return on Sunday as they play the series decider in front of a packed Ball Arena. The Nuggets have won 3 of the last 4 games in this series, so despite dropping Game 6 they’re still in the driver’s seat.
I expect them to throw everything they have at Anthony Edwards here defensively, shutting him down would severely limit a Wolves offense that hasn’t had a clear-cut 2nd scoring option that’s been effective in this series. I’m also expecting the likes of Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon to bounce back after combining for just 20 points in Game 6. When it comes to a Game 7s I’d much rather bet on the team that has a 3-time MVP in the line-up. Give me Denver to advance here.
Nikola Jokic 2+ Made Threes (+134)
Speaking of the 3-time MVP, he had a relatively quiet Game 6 by his standards, scoring just 22 points in 36 minutes played. The energy just wasn’t there after the initial 9-2 run to start the game and after that the Nuggets got plummeted. Jokic stood the entire 4th quarter on the sidelines as his team was losing by as many as 50 points in that game, so something tells me the Timberwolves could be in trouble here. As far as his three-point shot goes, Jokic was hitting it at a 40% clip in 4 regular season meetings vs Minnesota, in his last 10 games the efficiency has stayed the same at 39.4%. The Serbian has played in 12 elimination games in his career so far – he’s scored at least 2 threes in 7 of them, while shooting 40.3% from deep. He’s cleared this line twice in the Lakers series and twice so far in this series. Both of those games vs Minnesota came at Ball Arena, that gives me optimism he will once again show up when it matters the most
Naz Reid to Score 10+ Points (+140)
I am a huge fan of Naz Reid and I must have him in Same Game Parlay for Sunday’s game. The 6th man of the year has been vital in Minnesota’s success this year, with their season on the line I am expecting him to step up big time here. So far in 10 postseason games he’s averaging 10.3 points per game, while clearing this line 6 times. In the initial two games at Ball Arena he dropped 16 and 14 points, while being very effective from the three-point line. Limiting Anthony Edwards will be the main priority for the Nuggets defense here, so it’ll be up to Reid to lead the way when Ant Man is not out there. Scoring 10 points shouldn’t be too difficult, he’s done it 62 times this year if we include both the regular season and postseason.
Rudy Gobert to Record 10+ Rebounds (-330)
The Frenchman has come under a lot of criticism in this series, but he’s already used to that happening no matter how good he plays. He played a major role in limiting the Nuggets to just 70 points in that Game 6 victory with 14 rebounds, his 3rd straight game of at least 11 rebounds collected. For the series he’s at 11.2 per game, up from the 11 per game he averaged against the Suns. He’s one of the more experienced players on the Timberwolves roster having played in 11 elimination games in his career. He’s averaging 11.7 boards per game in those games and has failed to record double-digit boards on just 3 occasions. For a 4-time Defensive Player of the Year it shouldn’t be too difficult to get 10 rebounds in a game of this magnitude.
