Filip Tomic
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With the 2024-25 NBA regular season officially upon us, it’s time to pick out some of our favorite NBA team win totals predictions. We’ve seen some interesting moves done in the offseason, but the question is how many teams will build upon what they did last year?
Speaking of last year, I went 3-1 with my NBA Team Win Totals predictions. Two of those three winners were decided by just a single game, and I have no doubt that this year’s bets will also go down the wire. Let’s break down my 5 NBA win total best bets for this season, while you can find out our NBA picks for all the big matchups throughout the season.
Milwaukee Bucks Over 50.5 Wins (-105)
After a turbulent season last year, I feel like a bounce-back campaign is on the cards for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. This team started the season 30-13 and then proceeded to fire their rookie head coach, who they replaced with the experienced Doc Rivers. And everything went downhill from there. Injuries also played a part, as Khris Middleton had double foot surgery, Giannis was bothered by a calf strain which ultimately caused the Bucks to flame out in the first round of the playoffs.
Things should be different this time around though. A motivated Giannis will be a problem for opposing teams, plus he and Dame Lillard finally get a full training camp together under Doc Rivers, which should help their chemistry. Experience is also on the side of the Bucks, as they’ll be the 2nd-oldest team heading into the new season (behind the Clippers). Sure, older teams sometimes ignore the regular season, but with something to prove I am counting on Giannis and the Bucks to make some noise.
Find out our NBA Championship best bets and the latest odds, featuring our expert’s 2 top picks
Sacramento Kings Over 44.5 Wins (-106)
Sacramento finished 46-36 last year, ultimately losing to the Pelicans in the NBA play-in tournament. They made a notable offseason acquisition in DeMar DeRozan and also re-signed Malik Monk and Alex Len. Defense will likely continue to plague them, but adding DeRozan gives them a mid-range weapon they haven’t had in previous years. Ball movement is something this team takes a lot of pride in doing, as they finished the previous 2 seasons 6th in assists per game and if that continues then good things should happen. Clutch play is another aspect of the game they’ve mastered over the years, especially De’Aaron Fox, who has come up big in some huge matchups for them. I feel like this team will at least match last season’s win total, which should put them over the number for this year.
Oklahoma City Thunder Over 57.5 Wins (-110)
No team in the NBA is as prepared for the regular season as the Oklahoma City Thunder are. Younger teams usually excel in the first 82 games, trying to find their spot under the bright lights of the NBA. This was also the case last season, when the Thunder finished in a 3-way tie for the number-1 seed in the Western Conference, winning 57 games. Their win total projections have remained around that number with most oddsmakers, which is a bit surprising considering all the moves they made during the offseason.
Alex Caruso was added to bolster an already superb defense, while Isaiah Hartenstein comes in to tighten things down low and help Chet Holmgren in the rebounding department. Last season, the Thunder finished in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating, and this could very well be their breakout year. Their leader Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a strong candidate for MVP honors last season, and I can’t see how teams contain him with so much talent on this roster. I’ll take the over on the Thunder.
Denver Nuggets Over 50.5 Wins (+104)
Despite winning 57 games last year, the Nuggets’ projected win total has regressed all the way down to just 50.5 games. As I said in my NBA Championship predictions article, I am not yet ready to give up on this team. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is their most notable departure, but they still have the NBA’s best player Nikola Jokic at the helm. Jamal Murray has a lot to prove after a dismal postseason and Olympics run with Canada during the summer, and I’m counting on him to step up. Russell Westbrook also comes in to help out at the point guard position, and easing the load off Jokic could do wonders for this team. I just feel like the Nuggets will continue being a contender in the West, as they’ve failed to win 52 games just once over their past 6 seasons, and that was when Murray missed the entire year dealing with his knee issue. Look out for the Nuggets this year.
Utah Jazz Under 27.5 Wins (-110)
Finally, we have the Utah Jazz. Where is this team exactly going? Nobody knows for sure. They had the NBA’s worst defensive rating at 119.6 last season and won just 5 games after the all-star break to finish the year 31-51. They also haven’t made any strides to improve their roster in the offseason, which could be a signal that a rebuild is in full effect. Lauri Markkanen did sign a contract extension, which prevents the team from being able to trade him, but even with him around they are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA. Winning games in the loaded West is never easy, this team might just throw in the towel and tank the year for a higher chance of drafting Duke phenom Cooper Flagg.
