Filip Tomic
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The preseason officially ended on Friday and we are now just days away from tip-off in the 2023-24 NBA season. It promises to be another spectacular season with plenty of opportunities to land some bets in the process.
Last season I went 3-1 with my NBA over/under predictions, landing -142, -162 and -110 odds bets. My analysis for the 2023-24 season is done and this time around I’ve picked out my 4 favorite bets.
Continue reading below to see my selections, but also don’t forget to check out all our NBA analysis for the 2023-2024 season.
LA Lakers over 46.5 wins (-106)
I must say I’m slightly surprised by this line considering how the Lakers rallied towards the end of last season and into the playoffs. Sure, they got swept by the Denver Nuggets in the Conference Finals, but this is a regular-season bet and I am all over the over. If you remember, things didn’t start off well last year, with LA going 1-10 to start the season and being hailed as one of the most dysfunctional teams in the league. Russell Westbrook was dealt away and all of a sudden the team started playing better.
This time around they don’t have that problem so I expect a much better start to their campaign. Not that we should put too much weight into the preseason, but Anthony Davis has looked really solid so far, especially in the final game against the Suns when he had 5 blocks in the 1st quarter. LeBron James is also a year older, and I do not expect him to play more than 60 games. The supporting cast is really good, though, and Austin Reaves is set to take another leap forward and I just think this team will be really good during the regular season. Pencil me in for the over on LA.
Read our NBA Championship Best Bets
Philadelphia 76ers under 47.5 wins (-102)
You may find lines as high as 49.5 wins on the Philadelphia 76ers, but even at 47.5 I think the number is too high. This team is in a complete mess and the regular season hasn’t even started. James Harden is already on hiatus and nobody knows if he will be available for new head coach Nick Nurse. That kind of distraction from arguably your second-best player can’t be good, we are already hearing whispers around the NBA how Joel Embiid is eyeing an exit because of the situation.
Let’s also not forget that Embiid’s health is always a factor when betting on the 76ers. Even last season he struggled with his knee which caused him to miss games in the postseason. If Harden doesn’t play, Tyrese Maxey is expected to take over point-guard duties, so we’re basically entering uncharted territory with this 76ers team. Last season I went with the over and Philly ended the year at 54-28, but with everything that is going on I just can’t see them getting close to 50 wins this time around.
Take a look at our NBA player awards picks
Minnesota Timberwolves over 44.5 wins (-162)
Although the Timberwolves made it to the postseason last year and lost 4-1 to the eventual champs in the first round, they actually took a step back from the previous year, winning just 42 games compared to a 46-36 record the season prior to that. Star center Karl-Anthony Towns appeared in just 29 games, struggling with a calf injury all season. That’s all behind him now, so Minnesota fans can finally look forward to a full season of a healthy KAT.
We are also entering year 4 in the Anthony Edwards experience and after a solid FIBA World Cup campaign in which he led Team USA in scoring, Edwards is expected by many to take a big leap this year and make one of the All-NBA teams. A lot of greats who have played this game before him made big jumps in their development at this time of their career. His scoring output has gone up in all 3 seasons since coming into the NBA, if he leads the Timberwolves to 50+ wins this season he might even appear on a few MVP ballots. Optimism is high among the Timberwolves faithful as the team wrapped up preseason with a perfect 5-0 record. I think 45 wins shouldn’t be too much of an ask from a team as talented as Minnesota. I’ll take the over on this one.
Check out our NBA MVP predictions
Cleveland Cavaliers over 50.5 wins (-114)
The Cavs were one of the more surprising teams out of the gate last year, starting 8-1, after which they went 43-30 the rest of the way. And just like last year, this team looks to be built for the regular season. The most notable additions this season are Max Struss and Georges Niang, which should add to their depth, but it all comes down to Evan Mobley. He failed to make the leap we all expected him to make last season, which is one of the main reasons why the Cavs got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. A fresh start is exactly what this team needs.
The loss to the Knicks has left a bitter taste in the mouth of Cavs fans, and they should be one of the more motivated teams entering this season. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland played 68 and 69 games last season and despite that the Cavs finished with a 51-31 record and the best defensive rating at 110.6. If the 76ers fall off as we expect them to do, the Cavaliers should take some of their wins, so I’m feeling pretty good about taking the over with Cleveland.
Discover our favorite bets for the NBA In-Season Tournament
