Andrew Ortenberg
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The NBA is approaching the home stretch, and we have another full slate on Sunday. There is a solid card with 7 games on the docket, including a couple of highly anticipated showdowns. What better way to celebrate the weekend than with some first-basket bets? Let’s dive into them, using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Timberwolves vs Celtics: Jayson Tatum +600
I’ve taken Tatum a couple of times this season, and I have to do it again here. For starters, one of the most important factors when handicapping first basket props is who is going to start with ball. And Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns is winning less than 50 percent of his jump balls this season. Celtics big man Robert Williams on the other hand is one of the best in the league, winning more than 66 percent of his jump balls.
Brown is at +400 and then Towns is at +500. I’m not sure why either one of them is significantly lower than Tatum. At least recently, Tatum’s early game volume has been just as high as Brown’s. In Boston’s most recent game, Tatum made the team’s first basket by knocking down a 26-foot 3-pointer less than a minute in. He had 9 points in the first 4 minutes. Tatum has just been ridiculous since the all-star break, and he is averaging more than 33 points per game in March.
Check out our full game preview for Timberwolves vs Celtics
Lakers vs Pelicans: Herbert Jones +1200
I went with a little bit of a chalky play for our first selection, so it’s only fitting we take the longshot here for our next first basket play. Getting Jones at 12/1 is just too good to pass up. There’s another sizable jump ball mismatch in this game. Lakers center Dwight Howard has won just 10 of 24 jump balls this season, while Jonas Valanciunas has been winning possession at a rate of 54 percent. From there, I’m not sure why Jones has the same odds as Wenyen Gabriel.
Jones has been playing a little bit bigger role on offense lately, but oddsmakers haven’t adjusted yet. In New Orleans’ most recent game, Jones took 11 shots from the field. Most importantly, he attempted 5 of those shots in the first quarter. When he played the Lakers earlier this season, he was aggressive as well and took 12 shots.
If you want to go really big, a Tatum-Jones parlay pays out at +9000!
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