Filip Tomic
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The NBA Playoffs start this Saturday and we have a cracking Game 1 coming our way as the Utah Jazz travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 pm ET on ESPN, I’ve prepared a same-game parlay to spice things up.
After you’re done checking it out, be sure to also go through our predictions on the side and total for the rest of our NBA Playoffs match-ups for this weekend.
Let’s dive in!
Utah Jazz -7.5 Point Spread (+136)
Jalen Brunson Over 20.5 Points (-106)
Bojan Bogdanović Over 2.5 Made Threes (-108)
Mike Conley to Record 6+ Assists (+106)
Parlay odds: +1591
Utah Jazz -7.5 Point Spread (+136)
With Luka Doncic most likely missing the series opener at home, I am kind of surprised the oddsmakers have the Jazz spread still at just 5 points. I think they have a really solid chance to make a statement on the road here against the shorthanded Mavs who depend on Doncic in almost every facet of the game. Utah has a solid record in head-to-head meetings winning 12 of the last 17, that alone should be a huge confidence booster coming into this series. Health wise the Jazz are pretty much all good to go, while Dallas is missing Tim Hardaway Jr., Luka Doncic and potentially Maxi Kleber. Jazz should have this one in the bag.
Be sure to check out our Game 1 full game preview for Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks
Jalen Brunson Over 20.5 Points (-106)
Luka not playing means all the responsibilities on offense automatically shift on to Jalen Brunson. He is the team’s 2nd leading scorer this season behind Doncic averaging 16.2 points per game and over his last 10 games he has upped that to 17.8 per game in 31.2 minutes per game. Expect his minutes to go up in the postseason and the Mavs don’t really have a quality replacement. In 3 meetings with the Jazz during the regular season he had some solid games averaging 19 per game on 40% shooting from three-point land. I don’t give his team much of a chance without their best player, but Brunson should get his numbers in this one.
Bojan Bogdanović Over 2.5 Made Threes (-108)
Getting Bogdanović going early could have a serious impact on the playoff hopes of the Utah Jazz this postseason. Bogey is the team’s 2nd leading scorer behind Mitchell averaging 18.1 points per game, he just recently recovered from an injury and in the 5 games since coming back he’s putting up 17.8 per game. Before his injury he had a stretch of 4 games averaging 27.2 per game, so we know he can fill it up. Most defenses in the postseason will turn their attention to slowing down Mitchell, so Bogdanović has a pretty big role on this team even if it doesn’t look that way from the outside. His style of play has really worked well against the Mavericks during the regular season where he averaged 21.3 points per game against them in 3 meetings playing just under 30 minutes per game. He shot the ball 57% from the field and almost 42% from three-point range. If he can keep that up, the Jazz will be in a solid spot here.
Mike Conley to Record 6+ Assists (+106)
Another player who has to get going early for the Jazz is their point-guard Mike Conley. Losing him in last season’s series against the Clippers proved to be too much to handle for Utah, he played an integral part in them beating the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round averaging 8.6 assists per game. He averaged 5.3 per game in 4 meetings with the Mavs during the regular season, but he was on a really good run to close out the regular season collecting 8 of them in 3 of his last 4 outings. He will be the primary ball handler on offense for the Jazz along with Mitchell who I’m expecting to focus more on shooting rather than getting others involved. Not having to go through Doncic on offense will also be big for Conley who is undersized in that match-up, so I think he will have a really solid opener here.
We also have a same game parlay for Game 1 of Timberwolves vs Grizzlies (+3382 odds!)
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