Andrew Ortenberg
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The NBA regular season is winding down, and we have a small but interesting slate on Saturday. There are a handful of games on the docket, including a couple of national TV games on NBATV. What better way to celebrate the weekend than with some first-basket bets? Let’s dive into them, using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Warriors vs Spurs: Josh Primo +850
With so few games on the schedule, only one play really jumped out to me and that’s Primo at +850. When handicapping first basket prop bets, one of the most important factors is who is going to start with ball. The Warriors start Kevon Looney at center, and he isn’t very good at opening tips. In fact, he’s winning only 36.2 percent of his jump balls this season.
As such, I think the Spurs players have more value. And Primo’s usage should see a sharp tick up here. San Antonio is locked into the 10 seed, which means they don’t really care that much about winning this game. A bunch of key guys are sitting, and this contest is more about developing young players than anything else.
Primo is the youngest player in the NBA at 19, and I expect the Spurs to instruct him to let it fly here. Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Devin Vassell and others have all been ruled out. Primo and Tre Jones are the only two guys from the Spurs’ starting lineup in their most recent game that will be playing.
Primo is going to get the keys to the offense, and his usage and playing time were already starting to tick up recently even before this. It wouldn’t surprise me if he set a season high in shot attempts.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs
Clippers vs Suns: Chris Paul +1400
We went with a chalky selection for our first play, so it’s only right we go with a longshot to wrap us up. Getting Paul at 14/1 is just too good to pass up. For starters, Phoenix seems very likely to start with ball. Deandre Ayton is one of the best big men in the league at jump balls, as he’s winning more than 67 percent of his tips. Clippers center Ivica Zubac is at barely above 38 percent on the year. From there, Paul makes a lot more sense to me than some of his lower-priced teammates.
His scoring has dipped the past couple games as he hasn’t played a ton of minutes, but in each of his first three games after returning from injury he dropped at least 15 points. Paul obviously has an axe to grind with the Clippers, and he often plays even better with added motivation.
He’s averaging only 11.4 shot attempts per game on the season, but he has taken 14 all three times he’s played the Clippers this season. And he’s capable of being aggressive early in the game. In the Suns’ most recent game against the Lakers, Paul took four shots in the first five minutes.
If you want to go really big, a Porzingis-Paul parlay pays out at +7250!
Make sure you read our NBA mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1333 odds!)
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