Filip Tomic
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The Knicks spoiled James Harden’s Clippers debut on Monday with a 111-97 win over LA, and now they’re going for back-to-back victories against Victor Wembanyama and his San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. Tip-off at Madison Square Garden is on ESPN at 7:30 pm ET, and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.
Visit our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for Wednesday’s massive 14-game slate, which includes Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets in the second game of ESPN’s doubleheader. Let’s dive into my bet now!
Over 224 total points (-112)
Julius Randle to score 20+ points (+105)
Jalen Brunson 2+ made threes (-195)
Same Game Parlay odds: +406
Over 224 total points (-112)
This is a clash between teams with vastly different playing styles. The Knicks like to slow things down and rank 24th in pace, averaging 99.1 possessions per game. They also like to rely on their defense to win games, and only the Minnesota Timberwolves have a better defensive rating through the first two weeks or so of the new season. San Antonio, on the other hand, loves to run and the Spurs’ average of 102.2 possessions per game ranks 7th in the league. You won’t see a lot of defense played by them on Wednesday as they are 29th in defensive rating, and the Knicks will try to take advantage of that.
In addition, 4 of the teams’ 6 most recent meetings have gone over the total, while for San Antonio it has happened in 4 of their last 5 road games overall. With a somewhat modest projected total of 224 points, which has been exceeded in all but 1 of 7 Spurs games this season, I think backing the points is the correct call.
Check out my Spurs vs Knicks predictions
Julius Randle to score 20+ points (+105)
Scoring 20 points was just another day at the office for Julius Randle last season. He did it in 56 of the 77 games he played and although he’s off to a somewhat slower start to this season, I’m confident he’s starting to turn things around. Because of that slow start we are getting a really generous price of +105 odds for him to clear this line against San Antonio. Monday’s performance against the Clippers is a clear indicator of that. He finished with 27 points on 9-for-12 shooting and also grabbed 10 rebounds.
He has cleared this line easily in 3 of the last 5 meetings with San Antonio, and last season he even had a 41-point game against them in December. I mentioned the Spurs’ pace earlier, and we can expect inflated stats across the box score in this one and I think Randle will make the most out of his potential matchup with the inexperienced Wembanyama trying to guard him.
Jalen Brunson 2+ made threes (-195)
After seeing him torch the Bucks for 45 points on Friday, Brunson had his worst scoring output of the season in the very next game as he scored just 7 against the Clippers. The Knicks still won the game by 14, so I’m sure he won’t be too bothered by it. However, going just 2-for-12 from the field is unlike him, so I am expecting a bounceback performance.
San Antonio is dead last in opponent 3-point percentage, being the only team in the NBA that allows opponents to shoot over 40% from distance. In their last 3 games teams are shooting a whopping 46.6% from behind the 3-point line, so even the Knicks, who have struggled a bit from distance this season, should improve their numbers. Only twice in his last 7 games against San Antonio has he failed to cash on this line, and he’s shooting 41.2% from deep during that stretch. I’m counting on Brunson to deliver.
