Ricky Dimon
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With another off day from March Madness, the NBA is doing well to pick up the slack. We have an intriguing 11-game slate on our hands for Friday, when the Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Lakers will be among the teams in action. A Celtics-Bucks and Hawks-Warriors double-header on ESPN is the headliner, and both contests are getting the same game parlay treatment they deserve. Let’s take a look at the best such option for Atlanta vs. Golden State, and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Warriors +6 (-110)
Trae Young to score 30+ points (+138)
John Collins to record 10+ rebounds (+148)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, however, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. We don’t really have a choice in the matter this time around, as no Golden State player props are on the SGP board—probably due to the fact that Draymond Green is questionable, Stephen Curry is out, and the Warriors are playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation. Thus we are rolling with Trae Young and John Collins to make significant contributions to Atlanta’s cause. But even if that happens, we still think the Dubs can cover a +6 spread. Thus there is solid value on this three-leg parlay.
Warriors +6 (-110)
The Hawks had their eight-game winning streak snapped after blowing a 22-point lead to the Clippers on Monday. They followed that up with a loss to the Kings on Wednesday. Suddenly, this team is once again going in the wrong direction—and doing so for the first time under interim head coach Nate McMillan. If Atlanta stays in funks as long under McMillman as it did with Lloyd Pierce at the helm, well…that wouldn’t be good news. And it has to be said that the Hawks’ recent hot streak came at the expense of unspectacular competition—either bad teams or teams that were missing star players. The Warriors may be playing a back-to-back here, but getting blown out by Sacramento last night meant nobody logged an especially sizable number of minutes. They will still be rested for Friday.
Trae Young to score 30+ points (+138)
Atlanta unloaded backup point guard Rajon Rondo to the Clippers at Thursday’s trade deadline. Lou Williams returned to the Hawks in exchange for Rondo, but he presumably won’t be available for this one. Although Kris Dunn is close to making his team debut, he is not ready yet. Thus point-guard duties will be almost entirely up to Young on Friday. He has scored 28 and 29 points over the past two outings, so it won’t take much more of an effort to reach 30. It should be noted that Golden State allowed Sacramento to go 19-for-38 from the land of plenty on Thursday.
John Collins to record 10+ rebounds (+148)
The Warriors are dead last in the NBA in rebounding; Green is questionable; Curry is out, which will probably mean more missed shots than usual. All of that bodes well for Atlanta’s rebounding totals, and Collins will undoubtedly be among the beneficiaries. He is averaging more than 10 boards per game over the last three contests and has three double-digit rebound performances over the last six.
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