Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
It is April and that means we are entering the final stage of the NBA regular season; there aren’t too many slates remaining with every team still active so let’s make the best of this month before we begin cooking for the playoffs. The author is now 44-33 for a +9.1% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are his two favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, April 1.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM) Over 1.5 threes made (-109)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. has had to take on a big offensive role this season as one of the few Memphis Grizzlies to remain healthy. His three-point volume floor has been fairly consistent even when he isn’t seeing the ball go through the hoop, going 1-for-14 from deep in his last three games despite being involved in massive blowouts. Now he gets the benefit of a soft matchup in a game which Vegas has assigned a close spread. Jackson will face a Pistons defense that has allowed the 9th-highest catch-and-shoot 3-point frequency and 9th-most above-the-break 3-point makes over their last 15 games.
With Memphis still without Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Vince Williams Jr., John Konchar, and possibly Santi Aldama on Monday, expect Jackson’s playing time to be anywhere between 30 and 38 minutes in regulation barring foul trouble or injury. The Grizzlies have been without starting guard duo Morant and Smart since January 12 and in that span, Jackson averages 1.76 makes on 5.91 attempts per 30 minutes from deep. In this spot, we project Jackson for 1.95 makes on 6.50 attempts; this prop is playable up to -125 price.
Jalen Suggs (ORL) Under 12.5 points (+100)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
One of the biggest reasons the Orlando Magic are a formidable playoff team these days is the strong two-way play of Jalen Suggs; but this is a brutal matchup and an unideal game script for his skillset.
Although the Portland Trail Blazers have been tanking lately, they still remain a defense unwilling to give up the easy three-ball. Last 15 games, they are around middle-of-the-pack as a three-point scoring defense overall but a top-five defense against catch-and-shoot opportunities beyond the arc, which is Suggs’ bread and butter. In this span, they also rank as an above-average defense at the rim. Where they struggle is the paint and the midrange area, particularly ranking as one of the worst defenses in the league against pullup twos. That should feed more into the games of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who are higher in Orlando’s offensive pecking order anyway by usage.
Since the Magic got their preferred starting lineup back together on January 21, Suggs has only cleared 30 minutes six times and all of those games saw single-digit differentials in the fourth quarter. In that span, he averages 12.7 points per 30 minutes when Banchero and Wagner both play. The spread for this game is a humongous 16.5 points and with Orlando listing zero players on the injury report, there is no reason for him to get extended minutes unless the Trail Blazers put up a real threat at an upset. In this spot, we project Suggs for 10.0 points; this prop is playable down to -115.
