Andrew Ortenberg
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The NBA playoffs are in full swing and we’ve got a single-game slate on Wednesday. It’s a great spot for a standalone game, as the Denver Nuggets will look to avoid going down 2-0 to the Phoenix Suns. It will be nationally televised by TNT.
What better way to make this pivotal postseason matchup even more entertaining than by betting a same game parlay? We also have some thoughts on the side and total for tonight’s mega matchup.
Denver Nuggets ML (+205)
Chris Paul to score 20+ points (+225)
Nikola Jokic over 6.5 assists (-106)
Parlay odds: +2009
We have a three-leg parlay, one which pays out just north of 20/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it all down:
Denver Nuggets ML (+205)
The Nuggets lost by 17 in Game 1, but that final score doesn’t tell the full story. Denver was in control of the game until midway through the third quarter, when Phoenix went on an epic run. You’ve got to tip your cap to the Suns, but there are reasons to believe they won’t repeat that performance. For starters, Austin Rivers and Monte Morris likely won’t combine to shoot 3/17 again.
Conversely, I’ll be shocked if Mikal Bridges scores 23 for the Suns again. The Nuggets didn’t get a great performance from just about anybody, as even Jokic was off his game. Michael Porter Jr. had only 15 points on 13 shots. The Nuggets also attempted only six free throws all game. Denver often starts off slow in a series and then adjusts as they feel out their opponent. Last round they lost Game 1 by 14 to Portland, then won four of the next five.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns.
© Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Paul to score 20+ points (+225)
We get a big odds boost by combining this with the Nuggets winning, when I don’t think it conflicts much. In fact, Paul is actually averaging 0.4 points more in losses than in wins this season. He dealt with a shoulder injury that depressed his scoring in the first round, but he appeared to be back to his old self in Game 1. He dropped 21 points and 11 assists in the first game against the Nuggets, and shot 57 percent from the floor. Before his shoulder injury he had scored at least 20 in eight of his final 15 regular-season games, so getting +225 presents some standalone value.
Nikola Jokic over 6.5 assists (-106)
On the other hand, this does correlate with the Nuggets winning. As I detailed above some of Jokic’s teammates were ice cold in Game 1, and if they’re going to win here his supporting cast is going to need to step up. The Suns will focus on forcing the ball out of the MVP’s hands, and Nuggets role players will get some open kick-outs from Jokic. His assist numbers have gone down a bit in the playoffs, and oddsmakers have overreacted to the small sample size. This is a guy who averaged 8.3 assists during the regular season. In three games against Phoenix during the regular season, he had six, eight, and 11 assists.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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