Andrew Ortenberg
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The NBA playoffs are in full swing and we have a great two-game slate on Thursday. This is perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the playoffs so far, with the Los Angeles Lakers facing elimination in Game 6 against the Phoenix Suns. It will be nationally televised by TNT.
What better way to make this pivotal postseason matchup even more entertaining than by betting a same game parlay? We also have some thoughts on the side and total for each of tonight’s mega matchups.
Los Angeles Lakers alternate spread -6.5 (+162)
LeBron James to score 30+ points (-118)
Chris Paul to record 6+ rebounds (+220)
Parlay odds: +1414
We have a three-leg parlay, one which pays out just shy of 15/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it all down:
Los Angeles Lakers alternate spread -6.5 (+162)
The Lakers are facing elimination, and after their humiliating Game 5 effort I’m expecting a bounce back at home in front of their home crowd. It’s unclear if Anthony Davis will play here, but it’s not the end all be all. This team won plenty of big games without him this year. Oddsmakers and bettors have overreacted to one atrocious letdown game, and there’s value on the Lakers as a result.
If Davis does play, it’s a massive bonus and we should see something similar to Games 2 and 3. The Lakers won each of those by at least seven points. Los Angeles’ defense certainly hasn’t been the issue, as they’ve held the Suns to 102 points or fewer in four of five games. The Lakers are due for some positive shooting regression (Dennis Schroder is 3/22 in his last two games), and if they get it here they should win big.
© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
LeBron James to score 30+ points (-118)
This play correlates very strongly with the Lakers covering the alt spread. Especially if Davis doesn’t play. James hasn’t been overly aggressive looking for his shot this series, but that should change here. He got absolutely embarrassed in Game 5, and after a barrage of negative press should come out with an all-out effort. James often saves his best performances for when his back is up against the wall. He’s been waiting to break out, and it’s now or never here.
Chris Paul to record 6+ rebounds (+220)
We get an odds boost from combining this with our Lakers bets. That seems misguided, since Paul actually averaged 0.9 rebounds per game *more* in losses than in wins this season. Paul had four rebounds in the first eight minutes of Game 1 before injuring his shoulder. His numbers dipped from then on as he was playing with practically one arm, but he’s been getting healthier and grabbing more boards. In Game 4 he had four rebounds despite playing only 23 minutes due to the 30-point blowout going on. Paul’s rebounding numbers always seem to go up in the postseason. Last year he averaged 5.0 during the regular season, but 7.4 in the playoffs. Getting better than 2/1 presents a ton of value.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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