Andrew Ortenberg
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The playoffs are officially here. Now that the play-in tournament has wrapped up, we can turn our attention to Saturday. We’ve got four great games to start the weekend, and the first one is this early tip between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks.
What better way to make this nationally televised showdown (ESPN) even more entertaining than by betting a same game parlay? We’ve also got thoughts on the side and total for each of Saturday’s big matchups.
Milwaukee Bucks to win by 11+ (+200)
Khris Middleton to score 25+ points (+200)
Giannis Antetokounmpo to record 6+ assists (-124)
Parlay odds: +1157
We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. I think all these plays correlate nicely, if we can just get a big game from the Bucks’ offense. Let me explain:
Milwaukee Bucks to win by 11+ (+200)
When the Bucks win, they tend to win big, and it’s been that way for years now. Despite finishing as the three seed, they actually still had the best point differential in the Eastern Conference. Accordingly, their wins tend to be lopsided. All three regular season games between these teams this season were decided by at least 11, so don’t expect a nail-biter here.
The Bucks won two of those regular season meetings by at least 14. After Miami embarrassed them in the playoffs last year, Milwaukee will come out on fire here as they look for revenge. The Heat have a low offensive floor, and six of their past eight losses have come by at least 12 points.
Khris Middleton to score 25+ points (+200)
If the Bucks win this one by double digits, it’s going to be because they got a big night from Middleton. Miami is going to throw the kitchen sink at stopping Antetokounmpo from scoring, and he’ll draw the vast majority of their defensive attention. That’ll free up plenty of clean looks for Middleton. Antetokounmpo was held to just 15 points the last time these teams played right at the end of the regular season.
In four of five playoff games against the Heat last year Middleton scored at least 23 points, and that was with the offense struggling overall. Middleton has scored at least 21 points in eight of his last nine games, so that should be his floor here.
Giannis Antetokounmpo to record 6+ assists (-124)
The final leg of this parlay correlates strongly with the first two. If the Bucks win big and Middleton goes off, it’ll be in part because Antetokounmpo was feeding him dimes. As I just wrote, Miami is going to focus all of their defensive attention on getting the ball out of Giannis’ hands. His assists dipped a bit down the stretch, but he averaged 7.4 per game during March. In only 96 minutes against the Heat this year, he had 20 assists. That’s a per 36 minutes average of 7.5. In two of his three playoff games against Miami last year, he racked up nine assists (not counting the game where he only played 11 minutes due to injury).
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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