Ricky Dimon
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The Atlanta Hawks got off to a great start at home in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. It ended up not mattering, though, as the Bucks slowly chipped away and then dominated the fourth quarter to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Atlanta will need not only a strong start to Game 4 on Tuesday but also a big finish as it looks to keep its realistic NBA Finals hopes alive.
It’s the start that we will focus on here. Let’s take a look at our best first-basket bets for Tuesday’s action on the professional hardwood.
Pick – Giannis Antetokounmpo +390
Longshot – John Collins +1000
Here is a breakdown of the two prop plays.
Pick – Giannis Antetokounmpo +390
Sure there is not a whole lot to love about +390 odds on being the first point-scorer, but let’s be honest—this is the Greek Freak we are talking about here. He is getting any shot he wants against the Hawks in this series, and what he wants are layups and dunks. Needless to say, Antetokounmpo shoots a decent percentage on layups and dunks; you know…like 100 percent. He has been shooting quite well from the free-throw line, too, despite alleged 10-second violations. It must also be noted that Milwaukee has won all three opening tipoffs on this series. Brook Lopez is 3-for-3 in the circle against Clint Capela, easily dropping the ball off to Antetokounmpo on all three occasions.
Longshot – John Collins +1000
The Bucks are pretty much a lock to win the tip, which is why just about every on the Hawks (other than Trae Young at +500) has inflated odds. Milwaukee obviously isn’t guaranteed to score even if it does get first possession, so look to the Atlanta roster to find solid value on this prop bet. The best option is Collins, who—with Young presumably less than 100 percent—will need a big performance if his team wants to be competitive. The Bucks’ starting five actually plays into Collins’ hand on the offense end of the floor, because Brook Lopez isn’t fast enough to guard him and neither Jrue Holiday nor P.J. Tucker is big enough. Bobby Portis, who comes off the bench, is more effective in containing Collins. But Portis won’t be in there at the start, which is all the more reason to like the former Wake Forest star’s chances.
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