Filip Tomic
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The #1 seed Phoenix Suns look to advance from the 1st Round as they face the #8 seed Pelicans in New Orleans for Game 6. Catch the game live on TNT from 9:30 pm ET, I’ve prepared a same game parlay which you can find below.
Our predictions on the side and total for the two other games being played tonight are also available on our website, make sure you check those out as well.
Let’s get into the Suns vs Pelicans game first though!
Phoenix Suns -5.5 alternate spread (+142)
Deandre Ayton to score 20+ points (-128)
Jae Crowder under 1.5 made threes (+116)
Brandon Ingram over 25.5 points (-102)
Parlay odds: +1372
Phoenix Suns -5.5 alternate spread (+142)
The Pelicans have been a great story. But all good things must come to an end, including this New Orleans playoff run. Which is why we’re taking the Suns on an alternate spread here. The Pels are scrappy but Phoenix is starting to adjust to life without Devin Booker, which they showed in a big way in Game 5. Phoenix won by 15 in that game, and don’t forget that they were still great all year even when they were without one of Booker or Chris Paul.
It might feel like this series has been neck and neck the entire way, but in reality, four of the five games have been decided by at least 11 points. I like Jose Alvarado as much as the next guy, but the Suns are just the much better team with or without Booker. Mikal Bridges stepped up big time in Game 5, and if he plays anywhere near that level on Thursday then the Suns won’t have any trouble winning by at least 6 points here.
Be sure to check out our full Game 6 preview for Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans
Deandre Ayton to score 20+ points (-128)
Ayton has had just 1 poor scoring game in this series so far when he scored just 10 points in the unexpected Game 2 loss at home. He’s scored 19 or more in 4 games and that kind of reliability is very important for coach Monty Williams as he tries to make up for the offensive production the absent Devin Booker provides. Mikal Bridges stepped up in the last game with 31 points, but I’m not sure if it’s realistic for us to expect a similar performance tonight.
Ayton’s efficiency has really stood out for me in this series – he’s shooting 67% from the field and the Pelicans simply have no answer for him. Over the last 3 games, New Orleans is allowing 55.3 points in the paint over their last 3 games in this series. If that was their average during the regular season they’d rank dead last out of 30 teams in the NBA. Expect Ayton to dominate.
Jae Crowder under 1.5 made threes (+116)
Crowder is averaging just 7.2 points per game in this series and his contribution has been mostly on the defensive end, trying to slow down the Pelicans’ backcourt duo. His three-point shooting has been a disaster. Over the first 5 games of this series he is shooting just 9% from deep and has made just 2 of 22 shots. Slumps like that are never easy to come out of and most of the time it comes in the next series after the team advances.
Crowder has made under 1.5 threes in 6 games in a row and his minutes are slowly going down over the past 3 games. In Game 3, he played 34, followed by 29 in Game 4 and in the Game 5 win he went down to just 23 minutes. If the Suns want to close this one out they’ll have to turn to reliable three-point shooters and Crowder just isn’t one of them at the moment.
Brandon Ingram over 25.5 points (-102)
After Ingram scored 30 or more in 3 straight, the Suns were finally able to hold him in check on the road in Game 5, as he put up just 22 points, which was his 2nd worst offensive output of the series so far. He shot just 7-of-19 from the field and 1-for-5 from three-point land, while also making just 7-of-11 free throws. His turnovers were also costly as he committed 5 of them. All of that needs to change tonight in front of the home fans. In 2 games he’s played a Smoothie King Arena he’s scored 34 and 30 points while shooting belter than 50% from the field.
One of him or C.J. McCollum will have to provide the scoring for the Pelicans here if they want to stand a chance. I picked Ingram just because he is a matchup nightmare for almost everyone on the Phoenix roster. His size and length present an issue for whoever the Suns throw at him, it’ll take a team effort to slow him down tonight. I think he has enough in him to score at least 26 here.
Don’t miss our Thursday NBA mega-parlay (+1392 odds!)
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