Filip Tomic
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Luka Doncic has finally won a playoff series, but now his Dallas Mavericks are off to Phoenix to face the Suns in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal. Tip-off is set for 10:00 pm ET on TNT, and to add to the excitement, I’ve prepared a same game parlay which is available below.
We also have predictions on the side and total for Game 1 of the Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat series, so don’t forget to check those out.
Let’s get into it!
Deandre Ayton over 11.5 rebounds (+108)
Chris Paul to score 20+ points (+164)
Spencer Dinwiddie over 1.5 made threes (+102)
Parlay odds: +814
Deandre Ayton over 11.5 rebounds (+108)
Both the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns have perimeter-oriented offenses, so there should be plenty of misses going around for Ayton to have a solid rebounding game. So far in this postseason, he is averaging 9.8 in 6 games against the Pelicans, but as we saw during the regular season these games against the Mavericks can be vastly different. In 2 meetings this season, Ayton had 13 and 17 rebounds against Dallas. If we expand that to the last 4 games against them dating back to last season, he’s grabbed 17, 13, 17 and 17 rebounds.
I’m expecting Ayton to be active offensively on the glass as well, as the Mavs simply don’t have anyone as tall as him to battle on the inside. He finished with 2 and 3 offensive rebounds in the 2 regular-season meetings and getting extra possessions like that is very valuable at this stage of the season. There’s no doubt in my mind that Ayton can get to 12 boards in tonight’s game.
Be sure to check out our full Game 1 preview for Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns
Chris Paul to score 20+ points (+164)
CP3 just had the perfect shooting game to close out his former team, the New Orleans Pelicans. The seasoned veteran finished with 33 points on 14-for-14 shooting from the field, 1-for-1 from three and 4-for-4 from the charity stripe. Of course, nobody is expecting another performance like that tonight, but he should still have a solid game, especially since Booker still isn’t back to 100% after his hamstring injury.
What should work well for Paul in this series is the fact that the Mavericks really struggle defending the mid-range, which has been his specialty for more than a decade now. Dallas ranks only 25th in the NBA in opponent mid-range frequency, while the Suns have the highest percentage of makes in the NBA at 48.1%. We all know Paul is the king of the mid-range, so hopefully he can take advantage of that and have a solid scoring night.
Make sure you also check out our NBA mega parlay for tonight (+992 odds!)
Spencer Dinwiddie over 1.5 made threes (+102)
Dinwiddie is a streaky shooter, but over his last 4 games he’s scored at least 2 threes in 3 of them. He finished the series against Utah as the 3rd-best scorer on the Dallas roster, behind Brunson and Doncic, providing a solid boost off the bench in the series closing win with 19 points. Dallas will need everyone to step up in this series offensively and he is one of the guys that is capable of going off at any point in this series.
As we saw in their opening round against New Orleans, the Suns struggled a bit containing Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum so that’s Dinwiddie’s chance of having a solid series opener. The Mavs shot the three-ball at 33.8% in their last 3 games, slightly below their season average. Against a more open defense like the Suns have, that number should go up. Expect Doncic to get the most attention tonight, you can count on him finding his open teammates and one of those will certainly be Dinwiddie.
Read our same game parlay for 76ers vs Heat (+836 odds!)
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