Ricky Dimon
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Both the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns once led their respective series against the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks 2-0. The talking heads immediately started bloviating about how each series was over. Well, fast forward a few days and both best-of-seven sets are now deadlocked at 2-2. Joel Embiid has made a triumphant comeback for Philadelphia and James Harden looked rejuvenated in Game 4. Luka Doncic led Dallas to a pair of home wins to even things against Phoenix. It’s on heading into Tuesday night.
And now it’s time to take a look at the pair of crucial Game 5s on Tuesday and discuss the best first-basket bets to be made. So far in this postseason my first-basket plays have been profitable. I nailed 2 plays on the same day during the play-in tournament – Kyrie Irving at +600 and Anthony Edwards at +700 for a 2-leg parlay that paid out at +5500. After that I cashed two consecutive Donovan Mitchell plays, both at +500 (Game 2 and Game 3 of the Utah-Dallas series), before hitting another bullseye with Phoenix’s Mikal Bridges at +1000. Let’s keep the momentum going!
Heat vs 76ers: Joel Embiid (+440)
Needless to say, the tipoff is the most important factor that should be looked at when deciding on first-basket bets. Obviously, players on whichever team gains possession are going to have by far the best opportunities. In the case of this Miami-Philadelphia matchup, it’s not easy to say which team will get the first crack on offense. Embiid is back after missing the first two games of this series, so that helps Philly not only as a whole but also for the opening tip. The former Kansas standout lost it to Bam Adebayo last Friday, but with a game under his belt he stepped up and won it on Sunday. Embiid also took the tip in their only head-to-head matchup during the regular season, so I’ll play the percentages and also the more recent result and back Embiid.
If the Sixers do get the ball first, the masked man himself may take advantage of his own success. Early returns in Embiid’s comeback are encouraging. He scored 18 points in Game 3 and then went for 24 on 7-for-13 shooting in Game 4. Embiid scored his team’s first basket on Sunday, albeit not before P.J. Tucker drained a three for Miami. The runner-up in the MVP voting is generally awesome on the road, too, as he averaged 32.0 ppg in 34 such games during the regular season. Even at +440 (co-favorite), Embiid is worth a bet to score the first points.
Be sure to check out our full Game 5 preview of Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat
Suns vs Mavericks: Chris Paul (+1300)
In the case of this Suns-Mavericks contest, there should be no doubt about which team has the first possession. Phoenix big man Deandre Ayton won 66.7 percent of his tips in the regular season (44 of 66) and he has been the absolute best at this discipline during the playoffs (10-for-11). The 6’11’’ center out of Arizona will once again be going up against Dwight Powell of the Mavericks, who is one of the NBA’s worst in the jump-ball department. Powell won 15 and lost 37 in the regular season (28.9 percent) and he is 1-for-10 in the playoffs. Unsurprisingly, Ayton had no trouble taking the jump balls to begin each of the first four contests in this series.
If the Suns corral the ball off the tip, don’t be surprised if Paul becomes the beneficiary. In the first two games against Dallas, Paul attempted 13 and 16 shots. The Suns won both with relative ease. In the next two games, he put up only nine and four shots. The Suns lost both. Needless to say, Paul has every reason to revert back into more of a scoring mindset. The 37-year-old point guard will also have a fire in him following this past weekend’s incident in Dallas involving members of his family and a Mavericks fan. Look for Paul to get involved early and often on Tuesday, so at +1300 he has awesome value.
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If you want to go really big, an Embiid-Paul parlay pays out at +7460!
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