Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The all-star break in the NBA is not the mathematical midpoint of the season, but it’s a dividing line for when the intensity ramps up. Post-ASB teams are starting to solidify their rotations and make a strong playoff/seeding push. For the bad teams, it’s time to “evaluate talent” for next season, which is a fancy way of saying “tanking”. However, this upcoming draft is being viewed as one of the worst in the last 10 years so I’m curious of how much definitive tanking we see. Also, the play-in tournament has given more teams incentive to play hard to the last game. With the “middle of the season” upon us, let’s take a look at the current favorites for NBA player awards and see if there is any potential value still left to be had in the form of NBA futures bets.
NBA MVP odds and best bet
NBA MVP favorite: Nikola Jokic (-150)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
NBA MVP value pick: Luka Doncic (+1300)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Luka Doncic is having the best season of his career. He’s 2nd in the NBA in scoring (34.3) behind only Joel Embiid, who is no longer eligible to win the award. The Mavericks are 2-0 since making their big trade at the deadline to acquire PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and sit 7 games out of the 1 seed in the West. Doncic has 10 triple-doubles (3rd-most) and 30 double-doubles (7th-most) with the 2nd-highest usage behind (again) only Joel Embiid. It will take a slight decline from Denver along with voter fatigue for Jokic combined with Dallas rising to the top of the west for Luka to be vaulted into the top 2, but at 13/1 odds, I think that’s a reasonable number.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds and best bet
NBA DPOY favorite: Rudy Gobert (-600)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
NBA DPOY value pick: Victor Wembanyama (+3400)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Wemby leads the NBA in blocks per game (3.2) and is the youngest player in NBA history to do so. While I would agree that he’s not someone who is feared defensively (yet), he is putting up gaudy block numbers on a nightly basis, such as his triple-double in February with 10 blocks. The record for most blocks in a game is 17, which has stood since 1973. If that falls, Wembanyama has a chance at this award.
NBA Rookie of the Year odds and best bet
NBA ROY favorite: Victor Wembanyama (-600)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
NBA ROY value pick: None
Wemby has lived up to the hype and then some. Chet Holmgren made a good push early on in the season for this award and is in a far better situation, but barring a major injury, Wemby has this one with a bow on it. It’s worth mentioning that Charlotte’s Brandon Miller has quietly exceeded expectations and has shown he should be the piece the Hornets build around going forward (not LaMelo Ball).
NBA Most Improved Player odds and best bet
NBA Most Improved Player favorite: Tyrese Maxey (-230)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
NBA Most Improved Player value pick: None (sadly)
Embiid missing such an extended amount of time will allow Maxey to continue flourishing and showcase the player he’s become. I’d love to see Jonathan Kuminga get some recognition for the growth he’s shown over the last 6 weeks, but he’s still second fiddle in Golden State. Coby White also gets an honorable mention.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds and best bet
NBA 6th Man of the Year favorite: Malik Monk (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
NBA 6th Man of the Year value pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. (+160) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (+2000)
I’m shocked to see this award so top-heavy considering Hardaway Jr. (16.1) and Bogdanovic (16) are both averaging more points per game than Monk. Monk’s role appears to be weighed heavier as the Kings are more successful, but that can change as mentioned with Dallas shaping up to make a push upwards in the Western Conference.
NBA Clutch Player of the Year odds and best bet
NBA Clutch Player of the Year favorite: Steph Curry (+115)
Odds generally available at time of publishing.
NBA Clutch Player of the Year value pick: LeBron James (+2500)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Curry is 2nd in the NBA in terms of clutch scoring (5.1 ppg) just behind Anfernee Simons. I find it hard to believe the NBA would move off of giving this award to Curry as it would further validate the award, giving it to a player of his stature. LeBron is 7th in the NBA in clutch scoring (3.9 ppg) and you have to imagine that will only go up as the Lakers will do everything possible in the 2nd half of the season to avoid the play-in tournament. LeBron’s 58% on clutch field-goal attempts is better than Curry’s 51%, but James’ 22% from beyond the arc in that frame is really ruining his chances. If he can turn around his three-point shooting through April, this might have some legs.
