Ricky Dimon
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The 2021-22 NBA postseason is here. It’s not quite the traditional playoffs, but the play-in tournament offers plenty of interest – especially with elimination games starting on Wednesday. The Atlanta Hawks are going up against the Charlotte Hornets as both teams try to stay alive for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, while the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs are hoping to remain in the mix in the West.
It’s time to take a look at the 2 best first-basket bets for Wednesday’s play-in schedule. I nailed both plays yesterday – Kyrie Irving at +600 and Anthony Edwards at +700 for a 2-leg parlay that paid out at +5500. Let’s keep the momentum rolling!
Hornets vs Hawks: Terry Rozier +700
The Hornets can be expected to have the first possession in their road date with the Hawks on Wednesday. Neither Mason Plumlee of Charlotte nor Atlanta center Clint Capela is especially prolific in the tipoff circle. Plumlee posted a 42.2 jump-ball percentage during the regular season (35 won, 48 lost), while Capela comes in at 41.2 percent (35 for 85). Those numbers are basically a wash; therefore what you need to look at is the head-to-head. Plumlee and Capela have stared each other down twice at the beginning of games this season and Plumlee is a perfect 2-0.
Needless to say, the tipoff is the most important factor that should be looked at when deciding on first-basket bets. Obviously players on whichever team gains possession are going to have by far the best opportunities. Assuming the Hornets have the ball first, Rozier may be the one to take advantage. He has scored at least 22 points in 2 of the last 3 games and it is likely that Atlanta point guard Trae Young will be guarding him on Wednesday. Young may be one of the best offensive players in basketball, but he is a liability on defense. Look for Rozier to exploit that matchup early and often.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks
Spurs vs Pelicans: Keldon Johnson +550
This Spurs-Pelicans game is another case of the tipoff being a key component. Jakob Poeltl will be lining up for San Antonio and he has won 49 of 87 jumps this season (56.3 percent). New Orleans center Jonas Valanciunas registers at 52.2 percent (47 won, 43 lost). More importantly, you once again have to look at the head-to-head story. These two big men squared off in all 4 regular-season encounters between the Spurs and Pelicans and Poeltl won the jump on 3 of those occasions.
If San Antonio corrals the ball off the tip, don’t be surprised if Johnson becomes the beneficiary. Johnson (17.0 ppg) has scored at least 20 points in an impressive 9 consecutive contests. The former Kentucky standout has never been more confident than he is right now. It should also be noted that New Orleans is much better at defending the paint than the perimeter. The Pelicans are a top-10 team in points in the paint allowed per game, but they are among the worst in opponents’ three-point percentage and three-pointers made. Johnson is San Antonio’s top perimeter threat, so this should be a good matchup for him.
Check out all of our NBA previews and picks for the play-in round
If you want to go really big, a Rozier-Johnson parlay pays out at +5100!
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