Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a solid nine games for this Sunday NBA slate, and one of the best ones is this TNT nightcap between the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets. Damian Lillard vs. Nikola Jokic in a playoff rematch from a crazy seven-game series a couple of seasons ago that still always feels intense. We’ve cashed a couple of these NBA same game parlays with big payouts over the past week or so, let’s do it again.
What better way to make this nationally televised showdown even more entertaining than by betting a same game parlay? We’ve also got thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
Portland Trail Blazers alternate spread -5.5 (+380)
Nikole Jokic to score 30+ points (+174)
Parlay odds: +1675
We’ve got a two-leg parlay here, one which pays out north of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. We get a big odds boost by combining a Trail Blazers win with a big Jokic scoring night, when I certainly don’t think those two things conflict much at all. Let me explain:
Portland Trail Blazers alternate spread -5.5 (+380)
Portland is being greatly underestimated here. They’re 10-6 on the road this season, even after an ugly loss to the Suns in their most recent game. That lopsided loss to Phoenix might actually have been a blessing in disguise, as Lillard only had to play 29 minutes and nobody will be exhausted for this back to back now. Right before that loss they were on fire, having won eight of their previous ten games.
The Nuggets certainly aren’t playing their best ball at the moment, having lost three of their last four games with the only win coming against the lowly Cavaliers. Denver only has four wins in the month of February, two were against Cleveland and one was against the Thunder by two points. I think Portland has a very good chance to win this one, so getting this much plus-money is a steal.
Nikola Jokic to score 30+ points (+174)
We get the huge odds boost here by combining this with the Blazers. When you look at Jokic’s game log, it becomes clear there’s little correlation between his scoring and the Nuggets winning, but that’s how oddsmakers are treating it. In fact, Jokic is scoring a whopping 5.9 points per game more in losses than in wins this season. If anything we should be getting an odds reduction because clearly Jokic scores more when his team loses.
As for his odds of getting to 30 in general, he’s reached that mark in six of his last 12 so I think +174 has some standalone value anyway because of the matchup. Portland is already giving up the fourth-most points per game in the NBA, and with Jusuf Nurkic still out of the lineup they don’t have any big men who can hang with Jokic in the post.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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