Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
The NBA season is approaching the home stretch, and the stakes are higher than ever with teams jockeying for playoff positioning. We’ve got a nice slate on Sunday, and one of the best games is this nightcap between the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers. Jimmy Butler going head to head vs. Damian Lillard, there should be plenty of excitement.
What better way to make this nationally televised showdown even more entertaining than by betting a same game parlay? We’ve also got thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
Miami Heat alternate spread -7.5 (+220)
Damian Lillard to score 30+ points (+176)
Jimmy Butler to score 25+ points (+142)
Parlay odds: +2149
We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out just north of 20/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. We get a huge odds boost by combining a big Heat win with a big Lillard scoring night, when I don’t think it conflicts at all. Let me explain:
Miami Heat alternate spread -7.5 (+220)
I think the Heat are well positioned in this one. Both Portland and Miami have nearly identical records at home and on the road this year, so don’t make too much out of where this one is being played. The Blazers’ last five games tell you a lot about their recent play, beating up on weaker teams but getting out-classed by stronger ones. They’re 2-3 in those five games, with the two wins coming against the Pistons and Thunder. The three losses were to the Jazz, Clippers, and Bucks, and each came by at least 17 points. The Heat on the other hand have won five out of six, and I think they’ll keep it rolling here.
Damian Lillard to score 30+ points (+176)
We get a big odds boost for combining this with the Heat winning, when I really don’t think it conflicts much at all. The last time Lillard dropped 30 points was in that Bucks game, when the Blazers lost by 18. Lillard hasn’t been to efficient his past handful of games, but he always loves to show out in these nationally televised contests, so this is a perfect spot for him to break out of his mini-slump. He’s scored at least 30 points in 27 of his 50 games this season, so I think getting +176 presents a lot of value here. Especially considering there were 247 total points scored when these teams played just a couple of weeks ago.
Jimmy Butler to score 25+ points (+142)
On the flip side, I think there’s a strong correlation between the Heat winning comfortably and Butler scoring a lot here. This season, he’s averaging 3.3 points per game more in wins than in losses. He enters this one having scored 28 points in back to back games. He’s scored at least 25 in 10 of his past 18, so I also think there’s some standalone value with +142. Butler didn’t play in that game against the Blazers a couple weeks ago, but I don’t think he’ll have too much trouble against a Portland defense that is giving up the fourth-most points per game in the entire league this season.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free NBA Picks and Predictions. Check out the latest NBA Prop Bets and NBA Parlays as well as NBA Best Bets from our NBA experts.
