NBA Picks - NBA Same Game Parlay: Houston Rockets vs. Philadelphia 76ers (+4825)

Houston Rockets guard John Wall celebrates making a three-pointer during win over Wizards

Andrew Ortenberg

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Houston Rockets ML (+440)

Ben Simmons to score 20+ points (+200)

John Wall under 23.5 points (-102)

Parlay odds: +4825

We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out north of 45/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. We get a huge odds boost by combining the Rockets to win with the over on Simmons and under on Wall, when I really don’t think they conflict too much. Allow me to explain:

Houston Rockets ML (+440)

The Rockets haven’t been their best recently, but neither has Philly, and this line is inflated. In fact, the 76ers have lost three games in a row now, and I don’t think they were ever as good as they started. When you dig into Philadelphia’s recent wins, they’ve mostly come against bottom-tier teams, and I think oddsmakers are overestimating them.

It also looks like Eric Gordon could return for Houston here after missing the past couple of games, which would be a huge boost to their offense and provide a much-needed source of shooting. When making a money line play like this what we’re really looking for is upside, and I think the Rockets have demonstrated that they have it as they’ve played really well for stretches. They had a recent stretch where they won seven of eight games, with five of those wins coming by at least 12 points.

Ben Simmons to score 20+ points (+200)

We get a big odds boost by combining this with a Rockets win, when I don’t think it conflicts too much. Simmons is coming off a game where he scored a career-high 42 points. Philly lost that game. Clearly, Simmons scoring well doesn’t correlate too strongly with 76ers wins, as he’s actually averaging 4.8 points per game more in losses.

I don’t think the outburst was a one time outlier either. In his previous game he had 18 and in the game right before that he had 23, so I certainly don’t think him cracking 20 is a long-shot here by any means. Coming off the huge game I would expect the team to try to have him keep the momentum going and call plenty of plays for him early on.

John Wall under 23.5 points (-102)

We get another odds boost for this one, when like with Simmons, Wall’s scoring really doesn’t correlate with Rockets wins. He averages 2.2 points per game more in losses than in wins. He’s had a couple of big scoring games recently which has caused oddsmakers to inflate this total, but he’s only actually reached 24 points in seven of his 18 games. Wall still isn’t much of a shooter, and relies on getting a lot of his points around the rim, which will be very hard with Joel Embiid lurking in the paint here.