NBA Picks - NBA Same Game Parlay: Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers (+1778)

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry dribbles the ball against Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James during Christmas 2018 game

Andrew Ortenberg

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Golden State Warriors -5.5 alternate spread (+230)

LeBron James over 28.5 points (-118)

Stephen Curry to score 35+ points (+250)

Parlay odds: +1778

We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out north of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. We get a big odds boost by combining a Warriors win with a big James scoring night, when I certainly don’t think those two things conflict much at all. Let me explain:

Golden State Warriors -5.5 alternate spread (+230)

I think the Warriors have a very good chance to win this one big. The Lakers snapped their skid with a rebound narrow victory over Portland last time out, but they still didn’t play that great and their issues are far from solved. They’re still just 2-5 in their last seven games, and the offense just isn’t functioning without Anthony Davis right now. Their only other recent win in this stretch was against the lowly Timberwolves.

Without Davis, they’ve now been held to 102 points or fewer in four of their past five games. The one game they went over that mark was against the Wizards’ non-existent defense, and they still managed to lose that game. The Warriors on the other hand are 7-3 in their last ten games, with one of those three losses coming to the Nets and the other two coming by a combined six points.

LeBron James over 28.5 points (-118)

We get the odds boost here by combining this with the Warriors. When you look at James’ game log, it becomes clear there’s little correlation between his scoring and the Lakers winning, but that’s how oddsmakers are treating it. James is averaging virtually the same amount of points in wins as in losses this season. As for his odds of going over here in general, he’s gotten to at least 28 points in four of the six games without Davis.

Considering Los Angeles’ offense as a whole has been terrible in those games, that’s pretty impressive. It tells me that if the Lakers have anything short of a horrid offensive performance here, James is likely going to go over 28. He often shows out in these nationally televised games, and he’s definitely had this one circled after shooting just 6/16 from the field in his first matchup against Curry and the Warriors earlier this season.

Stephen Curry to score 35+ points (+250)

Curry is *averaging* 33.4 points per game in 13 February contests, so I think getting +250 has some serious standalone value here. For something to be worth it at +250, it needs to cash 28.6 percent of the time. Curry has gotten to 35 points in over 30 percent of his games this year, and he’s been particularly hot recently.

His big scoring nights also do correlate with the Warriors winning, as the team is 7-3 when he scores at least 35. Curry also tends to show out in these primetime nationally televised spots, and he managed to score 26 the first time these teams played despite shooting just 36 percent from the field.