Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a jam-packed NBA Monday slate this week, we might as well go for a big payday. That’s right, we’re back with another NBA mega parlay, this time a four-teamer with a payout north of 25/1. A couple of money line underdogs and a couple of favorites on the spread.
We’re going big and bold, so let’s not waste any more time. We’re diving in, but don’t forget to check out our picks for the side and total on every NBA game first.
New York Knicks ML (+160)
Sacramento Kings ML (+165)
Portland Trail Blazers -4 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -5.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +2514
I think both of these money line underdogs have serious value, and I expect Portland and Phoenix to win a lot more comfortably than their spreads suggest. Let’s break down each of the four legs one by one.
New York Knicks ML (+160)
The Knicks are coming off back-to-back losses to the Nuggets and Thunder, but right before that they had won five of six so I’m not panicking yet. Their last three wins were against the Jazz, and the Hawks and Pacers on the road. They’ve also already beaten the Bucks this season, so it’s not like their success has just come by beating up on weak teams. The Hornets, on the other hand, I think are a bit overrated. Four of their five wins this season have been close games, and each of their last three losses have been by at least 15 points, which tells me they’re due for some regression. Fade the LaMelo Ball hype here and grab the value with the underdog.
Sacramento Kings ML (+165)
I think now is the time to buy-low on the Kings at home as they’ve endured a rough stretch of games recently. Coming off their blowout loss to the Blazers, they should come out on fire for this one. I continue to think the Pacers are a bit overrated, and at just 3-3 in their last six games, they aren’t scaring me. The Kings are better than most people give them credit for, and all six of their losses have come against good teams likely to finish the season over .500. Two of Indiana’s wins this season have come by one or two points, and the others are against teams like the Cavs and Bulls.
Portland Trail Blazers -4 (-110)
Speaking of the Blazers, I like them a lot here. They’re coming off back-to-back dominant victories and each of their last three wins have come by at least 18 points, so they’ve got a ton of momentum entering this one. The Raptors, on the other hand, do not. Toronto’s season has started disastrously, and I always thought they were overachieving last year. The team really appears to be missing the inside presence of Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, who both left for Los Angeles this offseason. They picked up a win on Friday night but had lost six of seven before that. This is also the second half of a back to back for Toronto, so the Blazers have a big rest advantage here as well.
Suns -5.5 (-110)
I’m still fading the Wizards. Everybody seems to be expecting them to figure it out any day now, when I don’t see any reason to think that’s likely. A lot of people got excited after the trade they made this offseason, but outside of Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook, there’s simply very little talent on the roster. They were already thin in the front-court, and now starting center Thomas Bryant just tore his ACL and will miss his first game of the season. Washington is going to feel his absence sorely. He was averaging 14.3 points per game, and the Wizards don’t have anybody to hang with Deandre Ayton now. Five of Phoenix’s last six wins have come by at least eight points, so I’m not too worried about laying 5.5 here.
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