Filip Tomic
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Winner takes all tonight in Denver as the Nuggets and Timberwolves clash for the number-one seed in the Western Conference. Tip-off is at 10 pm ET on ESPN, and to add even more excitement to this huge matchup, I’ve prepared a Timberwolves vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay, which features both teams’ big-hitters in Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also check out our NBA picks for the rest of the day’s matchups.
Nuggets ML (-225)
Nikola Jokic 2+ made threes (+172)
Rudy Gobert over 13.5 rebounds (-106)
Same Game Parlay odds: +542
Denver Nuggets ML over Minnesota Timberwolves (-225)
It’s the game of the season for both teams, and I’m sure each would welcome the number-one seed with open arms. Experience is on the side of the Nuggets and I believe that will be the decider of tonight’s game. Yes, Minnesota has 2 wins in 3 meetings this season, but if we look at a larger sample size it’s actually the Nuggets who have dominated this matchup with 6 wins in the last 9 head-to-head and 5 wins in the last 6 at Ball Arena.
Denver has also lost just 8 times in 40 home games this season and 16-4 in their last 20 games there. Jamal Murray just came back from injury and a tired Anthony Edwards who dropped 51 points on the Wizards last night will likely have a tough time containing him. This is one of those games where we will see what the true value of Karl-Anthony Towns is for Minnesota. I have the Nuggets winning outright here.
Nikola Jokic 2+ made threes (+172)
For a bet that has now cashed in 3 straight games, I am feeling really good about backing Jokic to make at least 2 threes here, especially when we’re getting +172 odds. The Joker has been a lot more active around the perimeter in the past 10 games, attempting at least 3 threes in 6 of them. That is understandable, considering we’re down to the final week of the regular season and players will naturally stay away from contact as much as possible in order to avoid potential injury.
Matching up against a dominant inside player like Gobert also works in our favor, as it should force the Serbian big man to take shots further away from the basket. That’s been the general trend in the last 6 meetings between those two players, with Jokic attempting at least 3 threes in all those games. He’s made 2 shots in half of them and judging how poorly the Timberwolves have defended the perimeter lately, I’m confident he can add to that run tonight. Minnesota is allowing opponents to make 40.4% of their three-point attempts over the last 3 games, the 6th-highest mark in the NBA during that stretch.
Rudy Gobert over 13.5 rebounds (-106)
The frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year honors just had his 2nd straight game of at least 16 rebounds as the Timberwolves beat the Washington Wizards last night. Rudy has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games, and the only time he didn’t was against the Phoenix Suns last week, where he played only 29 minutes and couldn’t get going. He’s averaging exactly 12 rebounds per game in the last 6 meetings with Denver, but I’m expecting a defensive-minded approach from both teams here which should help inflate Gobert’s stats a little. With the number-one seed on the line, I’m expecting all the key players to log big minutes here, so I have Gobert finishing with at least 14 boards.
