Filip Tomic
Show Bio
Two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference square off for the 3rd time this season as the Celtics host the Bucks at TD Garden. Tip-off is on ESPN at 7:30 pm ET and I’ve added some extra sizzle to the matchup with a Bucks vs Celtics Same Game Parlay. You can also find out our NBA picks for today’s games, but for now, let’s get into our SGP for tonight’s huge game.
Bucks +8.5 (-106)
Damian Lillard to score 25+ points (+120)
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds (-102)
Same Game Parlay odds: +511
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 over Boston Celtics (-106)
The Bucks already have one win in head-to-head meetings, destroying the Celtics 135-102 back in January. Even the first meeting of the season was a close one, ending a 119-116 win for Boston at TD Garden. The Bucks just put up 140 points on the Phoenix Suns this Sunday, connecting on 24 threes in the process. It was their 9th win over the last 12 games played.
Take nothing away from the Celtics, they’ve been dominant during this current 6-game win streak, but they did face teams like Detroit, Washington, Utah and Portland during this run, so it’s been a while since this team has been taken to its limits. When you have a red-hot shooting team like the Bucks are currently, anything can happen. Boston has pretty much clinched home court throughout the postseason, it wouldn’t surprise me if they relaxed a bit in the coming weeks. I’ll take the Bucks to cover here.
Lock in our NBA mega parlay for tonight’s action at HUGE +1404 odds
Damian Lillard to score 25+ points (+120)
Even dating back to his Portland days, Lillard has never failed to show up against the Boston Celtics. In the last 10 meetings he’s putting up 27.8 points per game and his lowest point total during that stretch was 19 points back in 2018. He’s failed to clear this line only twice in those 10 games and the last time he played at TD Garden he finished with 27 points.
Another encouraging stat entering this game has been Lillard’s three-point shooting efficiency. He is at 41.1% from downtown in his last 10 games, which is quite the increase over his standard 34.4% in road games this season. The entire Bucks team lit it up from distance in Sunday’s win over Phoenix and Dame was no exception with his 4 made threes. Scoring on Jrue Holiday and Derrick White will be a challenge, but one Lillard is happy to take on. I’m counting on a big-time performance from him here.
See our Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors predictions for tonight’s other ESPN matchup
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds (-102)
Milwaukee won’t get far in this game if they don’t have a productive night from Giannis Antetokounmpo. As we saw on Sunday, that doesn’t necessarily have to be on the offensive end. The Bucks clearly have the capacity for big-time scoring games even when their best player isn’t playing well or at all. If Giannis focused just on rebounding, he could easily lead the league in rebounds per game. He’s done that in the 2 meetings with the Celtics earlier this season, averaging 12.5 boards per game. We also remember his stellar performances in the 2022 postseason against the Celtics where he had a couple of games with 20 rebounds and his average over the past 10 meetings is 13.5 per game. If there’s one weakness that this Celtics defense has, it’s opponent offensive rebounds. Teams are averaging 11.1 boards against them on that end, an energetic player like Giannis will surely benefit from going up against an aging Al Horford or fragile defender like Kristaps Porzingis.
